skyking162

It’s that time of the year, again. With only a few days before the Indians and White Sox kick off the 2006 baseball season, everbody who pretends (admittedly) to know shit about baseball puts forth their predictions for the upcoming season. You can thank me later for not using “prognosticate” at all throughout this series of articles.

(I think I wrote the exact same opener for last year’s article, but since I retardedly chose to trash those blog files, I can’t be sure.)

When I make predictions, I’m always torn between making reasonable predictions and going crazy just to make a point about a player or team that I think is really over- or under-rated. Let’s see if sane or not-s0-sane wins out.

Let’s start with the AL:

AL East

Boston — 92
Toronto — 89 (WC)
Yankees — 88
Devil Rays — 74
Baltimore — 72

Boston’s made some great moves to shore up weak spots, even to the point that they may eventually create unexpected strengths. When Mike Lowell proves that last year’s flop was not a fluke, Youkilis will become the regular third baseman (against righties at least) and Choi should jump to first. Trot and Wily Mo make a fantastic right field platoon, hopefully allowing Nixon’s 400 yearly ABs to be healthy ones. Could Mark Loretta get a better deal than switching his home park from Petco to Fenway? That’s like walking into a high school cafeteria and find out the food’s catered by the Olive Garden. (Of course, I predicted great things from Edgar Renterroria hitting in Fenway, too.) As for the Sox pitching, the upside is ridiculously high, while Oakland-like depth prevents total catastrophe if Schilling continues to bloody his sock, Wells gets pregnant again, or Beckett’s manicures go awry.

Do I really expect Toronto to win more games than the Yankees? Maybe not, but I’m sure the odds on that bet would win me a lot of money in the long run. Cat and Hinske are weak in the corners, but Rios and Reed Johnson are superb backups, and I wouldn’t be surprise to see Rios earn a regular spot in the lineup. Troy Glaus is a “lock” for forty homeruns, and if Toronto does manage to win the wildcard, he’ll be their main MVP candidate. Burnett starting at least thirty games is a big issue for the pitching staff and I never feel comfortable about Josh Towers. But the bullpen is damn good — great at the top with Ryna and deep through Speier, Frasor, and eventually Brandon League.

I’m starting to understand why so many people dislike the Yankees. I grew up a Yankee fan, but began also rooting for the A’s and Red Sox in college. I like many of their players (Bernie, Posada, Brosius, Boggs), but it’s so hard to root for a front-runner. Especially a front-runner that’s overrated year after year. Where’s the chivalry in that? Where’s the excitement. I’d much rather jump on a bandwagon that’s looking pretty shoddy but ends up leading the parade instead of one that’s at the top of a high cliff. I could see Randy, Mussina, and Chacon having great years (not Wright or Pavano, though) and the offense is just too good to not win 85 games even if the pitching’s horrible. Damon won’t impress this year, Posada’s on the wrong side of the catcher career path, Cano is not that good, and who the hell let Andy Philips into Yankee Stadium?

This is Tampa Bay’s year! (To break the 70 win plateau.) How sad is it that 74 wins would break the franchise record by four wins and earn them their first non-last place finish ever? I still think the Rays are focusing too much on “toolsy” players, but Crawford, Baldelli, and Gathright could actually all be quality MLB players. Avert your eyes from the starting rotation, except every fifth day when Scott Kazmir takes the mound — trading Lugo for Heilman would be a sweet deal, too.

Baltimore’s a funny organization. And by funny I mean horribly dysfunctional. The Orioles are Yankee-lite. Even Peter Angelos is a wannabe George Steinbrenner. The team is awful and they’re not fun to root for — Brian Roberts is the only redeeming quality of this team. Ugh.

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