While perusing the ESPN.com sortable pitcher statistics (sabermetric view, of course), four NL pitchers grabbed my attention: Miguel Batista, Greg Maddux, Glendon Rusch, and Tom Glavine. Two have pitched great so far this year, and two have, well, not. What’s fun about small sample sizes is that overall statistics, like ERA, often don’t match the underlying component numbers at all. While putting too much stock in early season performance is surely folly, you can limit your folly by paying attention to some key numbers.
Take Miguel Batista, for example. He sports a not-so-lovely 5.09 ERA and 1.75 WHIP — a completely disaster, right? What if you didn’t know those numbers but noticed these instead: 11.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1 HR in 18.2 IP. So what’s causing the disconnect between Batista’s skills and his awful overall numbers? A .415 BABIP. Yikes! When batters put the ball in play, they’re hitting like Ty Cobb. Arizona does tend to inflate batting averages, but with Batista’s career best 3.0 G/F he’s got a lot of balls sneaking through the infield. Adjusting BABIP down to league-average gives Miguel a 3.02 DIPS ERA. I won’t claim that Batista can maintain his current level of performance (he’s 35 with a track record of 1.5 G/F, ) or that his BABIP will drop to league-average, but a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way sounds perfectly realistic.
On the opposite end of the ERA leaderboard is Greg Maddux at 1.33. Even more impressive is that given the results of his pitching, the events “should” have combined to yield ERA of 0.80. Digging deeper, you find a 6.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 1 HR. Impressive, but the K/9 isn’t quite in Batista territory. Ready for the BABIP? .161 — do I even need to say that rate won’t continue? Nobody should be too disappointed, however, because even a league-average BABIP would put Maddux’s ERA at just over 3. Maddux’s year is starting quite nicely, just not 1.33 nice.
Let’s cut right to the chase with Glendon Rusch, everyone’s favorite DIPS patsy. BABIP? .209. .209!? But isn’t his ERA awful? — phew, it is, at 6.60 with a DIPS ERA of 8.30. Ready for his skills? How about 6.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 7 (seven!) HRs in 15 IP. He can’t keep that up that HR pace, can he? The good news is that Rusch sports a 1.1 HR/9 career rate. I’d be an idiot for predicting what kind of results Glendon Rusch will produce, but I feel quite confident saying that his ERA will greatly improve the rest of the season. (Actually, at second glance, his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 career numbers are quite consistent. It’s that damn BABIP that determines his fortunes year to year.)
How about another ex-Brave with a stellar first-month ERA, Tom Glavine. Through 24 IP, Glavine sports a 1.38 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and only 1 HR — with a normal .278 BABIP. So what’s strange here? How about career averages of 5.38 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 — a sure sign that Glavine’s about to implode, right? Well, it depends how much stock you put in articles like this that espouse nuggets about how Glavine’s completely changed his approach to pitching. According to the NY Daily News, Glavine is “pitching inside more and using more breaking balls to set up the pitch that made him famous ? his changeup on the outside corner of the plate.” I know, spring traning is chocked full of stories about change and hope, but Glavine supposedly made these changes part way through last season. Using Dave Pinto’s Day by Database, we can divide Glavine’s 2005 season in half:
Half 1: 102 IP, 4.94 ERA, 4.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
Half 2: 109 IP, 2.22 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9
So it look like Glavine’s huge K-rate bump didn’t happen at all last year, but he sure did reduce his walks the second half of the season. That, along with a slightly lower HR/9 explains his better performance. What’s in store for the rest of this year? Well, assuming the BB rate is here to stay, I think the good ERA is as well. Whether it’s in the 2.50 range as his DIPS ERA is now will depend on keeping that K-rate up. 9 K/9 seems really high to me, but I’d bet on Glavine continuing to surprise everyone the rest of the year. We’ll be celebrating his 300th win in June 2007.
In summary: Miguel Batista’s and Glendon Rusch’s ERAs should greatly improve — Batista from a return to normal luck and Rusch from curing his case of gopheritis. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine can expect their ERAs to jump somewhat — Maddux to 3.50 because he will eventually give up some hits, and Glavine to 2.75ish because, well, 2.75 is still damn good.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.