skyking162

Fourth! Only two more to go! (I already wrote up my first place finish.) For the rest, use the HRBL Predictions category.

The Keepers

Johnny Damon - $17; I traded Damon for Kotsay (and proceeded to cut Kotsay) solely because I thought Damon was the worse keeper option. That might turn out to be the wrong analysis, but if it does prove true, I’m going to have a lot of fun lording it over the Bradester.
Brian Roberts - $4; This is the guy I thought I could get for Damon. Love him.
Hideki Matsui - $12; I do like Matsui and he’s a very good player. He’s just not quite as good as Yankee-lovers think. Like 8 out of 10 instead of 9 out of 10. Now I dissed him.
John Lackey - $6; Can I take some credit for drafting Lackey two years ago at this price?
Chad Orvella - $5; Different people enjoy fantasy baseball for different reasons. Trying to predict when a crappy team will replace its crappy “proven” closer with a younger, better option is not one of those reasons for me. Hey Tampa, there’s a reason you could sign Dan Micel and it’s not because he really likes the beach.
Jason Giambi - $10; I have a lot of respect for the way Giambi has been able to turn his play around over the past year. He didn’t outplay Neifi Perez until August last year, and then suddenly he was vintage JG. Looks like he’s even added hitting for average back to his skill set this year.
Jake Westbrook - $4; Solid solid pitcher. His ERA will drop from last year.
Ben Molina - $5; Ugh, being the best Molina is like being the hottest octogenarian.

Brady’s keeper list was about as average as you can get. PECOTA pegs it at $257 of value and Rototimes says $261. With only two Yankees on the list, he’s got his work cut out for him in the auction in order to fill the requisite 8-Yankee quota.

The Auction

Gary Sheffield - $39; Solid price considering Manny went for a buck more. Sheffield’s more of a post-steroids injury risk, but the higher AVG and SB ten-spot kick up his value.
Derek Jeter - $30; This is wrong. There’s no way Jeter should go for a reasonable price in a fantasy draft, especially to the Yankee-lover. Tejada went for $39. WTF?
Ramon Hernandez - $24; Really the only truly dumb purchase on this whole team. I like Ramon Hernandez. I think he’ll rebound from a couple depressed years hitting in San Diego. But $24? Whoa.
Aaron F’n Boone - $11; Yes, Boone was sucking it up last year. But he hadn’t played in over a year and was dealing with a repaired knee. Considering his OPS rose from .450 pre-June15 to .750 after June 15, I like this guy. The only risk is if he gets off to a cold start and Cleveland decides to give Marte a chance.
Shannon Stewart - $9; Established ho-hum guys like Stewart have a much higher probability of earning over their mean value, but not much higher. They also have a higher probability of crashing and burning. Therefore, most of the time $9 will turn out to be a good deal. I’m hoping he crashes and burns.
Travis Lee - $7; If I can accept the theory that decreased mental pressure increases performance about anyone, Lee’s the guy. Let’s see if he can do it again.
Alex Gonzalez - $3; Three bucks for the starting Boston shortstop who’s got 20 HR power? Really? Just $3
Matt Lawton - $2; Oops.
Hee-Seop Choi - $1; Starting 1B against righties by June.

Randy Johnson - $33; He’s too brittle and old to have a full-blown classic Unit year, but I’m buying a 200 IP, 200 SO, 3.25 ERA performance.
Mike Mussina - $15; Rebound year. It’s going to be so good that looking back people will think the Moose was on steroids in 2006.
Rodrigo Lopez - $8: I need Frank to remind me which young Orioles pitcher Lopez is. Just based on them collectively, I think $8 is a little high, but there’s always a chance for a bustout year.
Ambriox Burgos - $5; Let’s say he closes half the year and the Royals produce save opportunities in 3/4 of their victories. That puts Burgos at what, 15 saves? If Burgos only pitched those 15 innings, this would be a steal. 50 additional IP at his ratios is NOT a good thing.
Ted Lilly - $3; Why does he make me think of Jimmy Key?
Jaret Wright - $1; Somebody took Debbie Clemens with their last pick a few years ago. I’ve been thinking about it and no, I don’t think Wright is quite that ridiculous.

Brady pulled out the wallet on a bunch of high profile guys while not overpaying for any of them (plus Ramon Hernandez) and also managed to find his fair share of underpriced filler. Additionally, five more Yankees and three more ex-Yankees found spots on his roster. Brady’s hit/pitch split was rather traditional he but ended up with a little extra pitching value. $254 spent to buy $268 worth of value overall.

The Outlook

Like Bobby Abreu, Brady’s team will be good not because he did anything amazingly well (besides bidding on Yankees), but because he did everything above-average. Solid keepers, didn’t overspend on big money players, found deals in the endgame, and left himself flexibility to add players at any position without cutting a significant name. There are a couple other very good teams in the league, but Brady should be right there. And it really hurts to write that. I may have to switch from bully-style older brother to overly-proud older brother. Bastard.

Popularity: 1% [?]

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 25th, 2006 at 2:04 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.