We’re cracking the top half of the league, as projected by PECOTA and Rototimes. The rest of the reviews can be found in the HRBL Predictions category.
The Keepers
Grady Sizemore - $1; A young starting outfielder with big potential? Yeah, $1’s a good price.
Tadahito Iguchi - $13; Not a lot of value here, but Iguchi’s a solid player and turned out much better than the over-hyped Kaz Matsui.
Rich Harden - $9; He keeps improving, but at a very slow pace. I guess that’s better than hitting your peak early and then disappointing. Could this be his 3.25 ERA, 200 IP year?
Kevin Mench - $1; Big Head continues to overachieve. Hopefully he can get a full allotment of ABs in that crowded Texas outfield.
Robinson Cano - $2; I’m not a Cano fan. I know everybody loves his swing, including Don Mattingly, but to me he’s just blah with not a lot of upside. Perhaps Yankee fans are just trying to recreate the young 2B they had in the Soriano years.
Shea Hillenbrand - $16; Ugh, one of the worst keeper choice, I think. All of Shea’s value is locked up in his AVG. Without a good one all his stats will suffer and he could lose playing time in the crowded Toronto 1B/3B/DH/OF rotation.
Carlos Guillen - $3; Is this the same Carlos Guillen that had the Mariners thinking Pokey Reese really wasn’t so bad? Yes, I think it is. Boy have things changed.
Kelvim Escobar - $8; Everyone thinks this is his huge breakout year. Um, why? He’s solid right now. At age 30.
PECOTA puts Jeff’s keeper right about average — $263, but Rototimes is a much bigger fan, projecting a final team value of $279 after filling out the roster with inflated prices.
The Auction
Manny Ramirez - $40; He’d be worth this price if he hits .320, but those days are behind him. Given that everyone had to overspend at some point in the draft, Manny aint’ a bad point to do it.
Jim Thome - $25; Big risk here. Things are looking good so far, but with injury issues we’ll be holding our breath all year.
Mike Sweeney - $20; In my mind, Mike Sweeney doesn’t age. He’s always been 32 and will always be 32. He should have chosen to be frozen at age 27.
Placido Polanco - $18; Polanco with an everyday job? What a novel idea. Nobody was arguing for that five years ago. (Yes, that’s sarcastic.)
Jorge Posada - $17; Down down down the slippery slope of catcher decline.
Jason Kendall - $12; Jeff loves to fill both his catcher spots with solid catchers. The jury’s still deciding if Kendall qualifies.
Joey Gathright - $10; Steals. That’s what Gathright is good for. Will he play, though?
Juan Rivera - $2; Hey, nice price.
CC Sabathia - $23; $20 Pitcher Club. You know, the group of $20 pitchers that will be outperformed by the likes of Javier Vazquez and…
Curt Schilling - $18; This price seemed a lot riskier before the season. Now, I think everyone would have gone $30. Well done, Jeffrey.
Tim Wakefield - $11; Will Tim Wakefield be the Julio Franco of pitchers? No-hitter at age 47, perhaps?
Carlos Silva - $6; He can’t survive pitching like this, can he? Great article by David Appelman posted at Baseball Analysts about pitching styles. Silva is a freak! He throws everything in the strike zone and nobody misses anything. Fortunately, contact never seems to result in homeruns. Nobody else seems to be able to do that, except maybe…
Jamie Moyer - $2; Think Moyer understands pitching at all?
Joel Pineiro - $1; BOOM.
Jason Frasor - $1; A much better $1 option than any starting pitcher for this price.
Jeff spent the big bucks on Manny, threw $40 at two top pitchers, then was willing to fill out the lineup with a bunch of end-game fliers. Let’s call it a modified stars-and-scrubs. Above-average-and-scrubs, perhaps? This team has a pretty typical 180/80 hitting/pitching split, but I’m a much bigger fan of the offense. I just don’t see Schilling and Harden making up for the potentially disastrous Silva/Moyer/Pineiro. A lack of saves in this league isn’t deadly, but it’s not productive, either.
The Outlook
PECOTA puts this team sixth with $240 in value. And again, Rototimes loves the offensive firepower, and counters with $293 in value — the best of any team. The offense should do well in all non-SB categories, but the pitching needs to be at least league-average to put this team in the top 3. I don’t see that happening as is, but with some changes, it’s possible. I think this team’s a lock for the top half, but I’m not sure it can leap over enough of the teams I see ahead of it. I’ll stick with these projection systems and say fifth place.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
April 23rd, 2006 at 11:04 am
[…] We?re cracking the top half of the league, as projected by PECOTA and Rototimes. The rest of the reviews can be found in the HRBL Predictions category. […]