skyking162

As always, you can find the rest of the HRBL previews by clicking here. That’s all the intro you get.

The Keepers

Mark Teixeira - $33; Money in the bank, but I don’t see him improving much over the past two years. Not that I’m complaining.
David Ortiz - $18; Two years ago I wondered if $18 was too much for a DH-only with part of a really good year under his belt. Um, no, it wasn’t.
Chone Figgins - $11; I hate players like Figgins — he’s not that good, but runs like crazy and manages to play enough to earn $30. Although, maybe I just hate Figgins because he’s not on my team.
Huston Street - $8; Absolutely love this guy. Part of the Top Four with Mo, KRod, and Nathan.
Felix Hernandez - $7; I don’t buy into the hype 100%, but as I tell my AP Stats students, 95% is still pretty significant.
Melvin Mora - $9; Remember the good old days when the Mets couldn’t decide if they wanted to use Mora’s weak bat and poor fielding at shortstop or centerfield? Evidently playing third base makes you an All-Star.
Jermaine Dye - $3; One of those guys who rides the over-/under-rated roller coaster year after year. I think his car’s just starting the downslope.
Mike McDougal - $2; Yes, Kansas City will let him close whenever he can pitch. But he’s never healthy, he’s a bad pitcher, and it’s not like the Royals have that many opportunities anyway. Then again, all he needs is like 6 saves to be worth $2.

The Girls had the fourth best keeper list according to PECOTA ($278) and the best according to power-loving Rototimes ($301). While Tex isn’t a stud at that price, the crazy inflation in our league would have pushed him well beyond $40, making him a relative bargain.

The Auction

Ivan Rodriguez - $24; Even with catcher inflation, this is a big price. Thanks to steroid testing we’re at least spared the annoying accusational chatter about IRod gaining twenty pounds this off-season.
Luis Castillo - $19; Just doesn’t run anymore on those bad knees. The turf in the Metrodome should help more of his grounders get through the infield, but he’ll also leg out fewer cheapies. We know he won’t knock anyone in, but do the Twins have anyone besides Mauer and Morneau that’ll knock Castillo home?
Emil Brown - $16; If I didn’t overspend for six outfielders I’d really make fun of this pick.
Orlando Cabrera - $15; Another of the all-around players, and evidence that having five tools doesn’t make you an uber-stud. Possibley underrated for the first time.
Mike Lowell - $11; He’s toast. Unless he only plays against lefties or befriends the Green Monster. Before the season started I had him projected to be the small half of a 3B platoon with Youkilis.
Kelly Shoppach - $3; Playing behind Victor doesn’t bode well, but Shoppach’s got nice upside. A trade would really help his value.
Jason Kubel - $1; Players come back from big injuries tend to disappoint at first, then surprise you when you’ve started focusing elsewhere. For a buck he’s a nice risk and great keeper candidate.
Jay Payton - $1; With the injury potential of the A’s outfielders, Payton should get 300 at-bats this year.
Nick Markakis - $1; Who? That’s what I said before I realized Markakis was a much better bet than Corey Patterson. Now I pretend that I’ve been a Markakis fan since his Little League days.

Freddy Garcia - $25; Whoa! See all my previous $20 pitcher comments.
Joe Blanton - $17; Yikes! I see potential for growth, but his luck on ball-in-play and converting events into runs last year will hide that growth.
Todd Jones - $15; Closers with porn mustaches just aren’t reliable. I ran the numbers, and Todd Jones has a .79 correlation with suckage.
John Garland - $15; Oh, you crazy girls. Is this the fantasy version of resigning the players that won you a championship at inflated prices just to keep the fans happy?
Brandon McCarthy - $3; I can’t believe I’m reminding people of this, but McCarthy was my Cy Young sleeper last year. Definitely like him.
Casey Fossum - $1; For a buck, why not. Way better than Jeremy Affeldt types. Or is there just one Jeremy Affeldt? (The world would be better off if there was.)

The Aftermath

PECOTA puts the Girls with the seventh most value ($237), but Rototimes comes back and says $283, good for third. While they need some good breaks from pseudo-closers and young players, that can be a good thing. You’ll know early if you’ve got a shot or need to re-load for next year, and if you do catch the breaks, it’ll be big time. My own guess is that the Girls will finish fifth.

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