We’ve officially moved up into the middle of the pack. Click here for the rest of the reviews. This is Kevin’s first year in the league, so I’ll take it easy on him. (Until I mention that he left $26 on the table.)
The Keepers
Scott Podsednik - $28; The power outage and mediocre AVG prevent him from achieving uber-stud status, but $28 is right at value. Right-at-value is worthwhile with more valuable keepers.
Joe Nathan - $18; One of the best, if not the best AL fantasy closer. At a discount.
Travis Hafner - $2; One of the best keepers in the entire league. This is disgusting. At least it’s the last year of his contract.
Alexis Rios - $3; Perpetual prospect should get a shot at playing full time this year.
Brian Anderson - $1; At the other end of the spectrum from the Twins/Jason Bartlett we’ve got the Dubya-Sox/Brian Anderson. This is like giving the keys to the car to your 14-year old son. It should be fun, but might get ugly.
Dan Johnson - $1; I’m always wary of young guys who do better in their rookie year than anybody was expecting. They’re great stories, but so many seem to regress the next year. He’s an A, so I’m rooting for him.
Juan Uribe - $1; Ugly, ugly, ugly. I would have kep thim at this price, but I’m glad I didn’t have to.
Cliff Lee - $4; Overrated. And that’s a shame because he used to be underrated. Lee had a solid year last year, but the wins were flukey. Look for a 4.00 ERA this year and 13 wins.
Kevin had one of the best keeper lists thanks to his retired predecessor. $138 of value for $58 according to PECOTA, which translates into an expected team value of $286.
The Auction
Troy Glaus - $31; I wanted him. This price is expensive, but I wish I’d pulled the trigger.
Hank Blalock - $27; I wanted him. This price is expensive, but I wish I’d pulled the trigger. PECOTA thinks he’s going to become the star he was assumed to be three years ago.
Corey Patterson - $23; I wanted him. This price is expensive, and I’m glad I didn’t go any higher.
Kenji Johjima - $20; Ah, yes, another over-inflated catcher (price, not size). Don’t know why, but this might be one that earns his price.
Luis Matos - $7; If you’ve got 5 OFs, can they all play full time? Has there been a year in the past ten when Baltimore didn’t have this problem? And by problem I mean “lacking quality outfielders” not “havign too many good outfielders.”
Gerald Laird - $3; I’m a big fan and I bet he ends up at least splitting time with Barajas this season.
Ramon Vazquez - $1; This was part one of Kevin’s evil plan to…
Brandon Phillips - $1; …kill Ron Belliard and hope for the best.
Eddie Guardado - $24; I’m guessing he survives two-thirds of the season.
Kris Benson - $11; I’m sick of hearing about the Mazzone Magic. But should I feel guilty about also believing in it? Crazy prediction time: sub-3.75 ERA for Benson this year.
Chien-Ming Wang - $7; Um, no.
Jon Papelbon - $7; Ding ding ding! You just won the lottery.
Vicente Padilla - $6; One good year for Padilla about twelve years ago. And now he’s pitching in Texas? I feel bad for his family.
Dustin Hermanson - $5; Ok, really now. Let’s just chalk this one up to a brain fart. My first year playing fantasy baseball I drafted two catchers that were out for the season with injuries. We all have these moments.
Gil Meche - $3; Why? Because Glendon Rusch wasn’t available? Yikes.
Hmm, $26 more would have bought another solid pitcher, a stick in the middle infield, and a couple of upgrades. Saves don’t appear to be a problem, but the Meche/Wang/Padilla combo could permanently destroy the ratios by June. If that’s the case, then this team might as well go with more scrub starters and try to beat the pack in K’s and Wins. As it is, those categories aren’t looking so hot. The offense looks quite solid, with speed to spare and quality power. Lack of depth makes the Run and RBI categories questionable.
The Outlook
Kevin has a very strong foundation, but will need to fill in a bunch of cracks to finish in the top third. Those starters need to pull through and be joined by a second wave. The middle infield needs replacing (already underway). Can a key trade of a closer half-way through the year do enough? I’m thinking not and it’ll be a struggle to crack the top 5.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
April 14th, 2006 at 6:04 pm
At some point in the draft though don’t you have to admit you have too much money left over, suck it up, and keep going with proper strategy?
I mean, at some point, I’d rather have money left on the table than be the idiot paying $30 for Aubrey Huff… I mean… $30 for some mediocre player.
Seriously though, if you have $30 left on the table and the only players left are $3-5 guys, what real good does it do to out bid another team on a player that is marginally better than another. I’d rather keep money around til the end game and steal a couple of decent players for $2-3, as possible keepers that I could trade early in the season or keep (in case my team sucks as much as predicted)
I’d argue that poor planning resulting in having $30 left in the end is bad, but buying up mediocre talent in the end compounds the problem. Particular at the end of our auction where money has been spent excessively early on and there are many worthwhile players left on the board.