I’m going to analyze the teams in my most important fantasy league, the HRBL. Now, I realize talking to someone about their fantasy team is almost as bad as being forced to look at 300 baby photos, but my reason for doing this is to comment on a lot of AL players from a fantasy perspective in an organized way. I’ll also probably throw in some general strategy comments, which may or not be interesting. The keepers will be listed first.
Click here to view the rest of the reviews.
The league: 10 teams/5×5/AL-only/$260 budget/8 keepers/23 players/ about 35% inflation to begin
Doug & Sky’s Get Buff Team
There is not Doug. Well, there is, but he’s not involved with the team. A silent partner, if you will.
The Keepers
Francisco Rodriguez - $3; Nobody better as long as his elbow holds up.
Dan Haren - $9; A weaker keeper, but I really think he can keep improving. Look for more wins this year.
Victor Martinez - $9; Last year was a tale of two halves. Can’t ignore the first half, but two halves this year like his second in 2005 could push him to $30. Love him.
Justin Morneau - $5; It’s funny, I didn’t like him two years ago and he took off. I loved him last year and he didn’t live up to expectations. This year I’ll go with .275/25 HRs/$15
Ian Kinsler - $2; Fantasy numbers won’t approach Soriano, but the Rangers won’t miss Alfonso at all. One of those all-around guys that flies under the radar but ends up worth at least $15.
Carl Crawford - $21; People are talking about his wrist, his desire to steal bases, his increasing power, his defense. Whatever. PencilSharpie him in for similar stats as last year.
Curtis Granderson - $5; Like Kinsler, but in the OF and with a bigger upside. Detroit hasn’t produced many stars recently, but Tiger fans will love Granderson.
David Dejesus - $1; His SB potential is overrated, but he’s not bad. $10 in value, much of it tied into his AVG.
The Auction
AJ Pierzinsky - $16; Definitely high, catchers seem have extra inflation in our league. I like him to rebound to his AVG of a few years ago, but I said that when I bought him last year, too.
Ben Broussard - $8; Nothing amazing here, just reasonable production at a reasonable price. If he crashes for some reason, the Indians are more than capable of throwing a talented young hitter in his place.
Michael Cuddyer - $4; I had a bunch of money sitting around waiting to grab at least two of Glaus, Blalock, Chavez, and Beltre, but they all went for prices well beyond what I thought was reasonable. Looking back, maybe I should have sprung for one, but oh well. Cuddyer deserves to play over Tony Batista, but at least he’ll get some ABs in the OF for now. Slight deal here.
Russ Adams - $12; He should play all year, likely leading off for some of it. Won’t be a stud, but $12 ain’t bad.
Bobby Crosby - $21; Huge year coming up - the injury-plagued label is undeserved. I’m ignoring the bloody finger.
Craig Monroe - $23; I kept sitting on my money because I felt everyone else was WAY overpaying. In retrospect, I probably waited to spend money just little too long. I should have been willing to follow the crowd and slightly overspend on a couple guys in order to avoid having to do something like this (and see Huff). Lesson learned: you can’t always stick to your own theoretical numbers because the other teams determine the market.
Aubrey Huff - $28; Yup, way too high. But at least I didn’t leave money on the table. And the 3B eligibility might help eventually.
Torii Hunter - $28; Please let him play the whole year.
Shawn Chacon - $6; Big risk/big reward. I give him a 50-50 shot at a 4.00/13W season. If not, well, I can cut him early.
Carl Pavano - $1; I threw him out assuming someone else would bid and fill up a pitching spot. Oops. In retrospect, this is a damn fine $1 gamble, with at least as much upside as Chacon. But it’s still just an injured Pavano.
Bruce Chen - $8; Was last year a fluke? Well, considering man people had been predicting good things for Chen for a few years, I’m guessing not. Cheap quality starting pitcher filler.
Matt Clement - $12; One of the better deals during the auction, I think. The K’s and W’s are there, and the possibility of a mid-3.00 is decent. I like this one a lot.
Esteban Loiza - $16; Maybe I just like everyone who joins the A’s. But it seems that all the pitchers have low BABIP rates. Is the park? The fielding? The coaching? Whatever, I’ll take. Probably a little high. Switch the Loaiza and Clement prices.
Nate Robertson - $5; This guy won’t hurt at all. With the Tiger’s offense looking better and better, a bump in Ws should return good value here.
Reserve Rounds
BJ Upton - Could be big this year, and a likely keeper.
Rafael Soriano - I think he’ll be huge, and take over the closer role once Guardado dies/is traded. Also a great option in case one of the risky starters goes up in flames.
Andy Sisco - Another backup closer, and I like Burgos/McDougal less than Guardado. Unfortunately, KC management seems biased against Sisco. Maybe because he’s a lefty?
Latroy Hawkins - I left a friend a list to draft from for a couple rounds while I was out of town. It was absolutely destroyed by others’ picks, and I happened to get yet another backup closer right here. Not thrilled, but a decent gamble.
Octavio Dotel - He should be good eventually, right? Might be overkill on potential closers by this point.
Ryan Garko - Finally another backup hitter — if he gets called up. I think he’s as good as Broussard right now.
Franklin Gutierrez - Damn, those Indians are pretty deep, eh? I don’t expect much this year.
Jeremy Affeldt - I had a plan to pick a couple starters in the reserve rounds to back up the couple scrubs I bought in the auction. But it seemed like the few I wanted were picked right before my turn. Um, Affeldt’s had a nice spring?
Team Analysis
My keepers were top notch, leaving me the duty of spending the rest of the money wisely in order to have a shot at winning. Except for Hunter, Huff, and Monroe, I did that. My hitters are strong and Cuddyer’s the only one without a full-time job. No absolute superstars, but consistency will rack up the stats this year. My pitching plan was to load up on decent starters without much chance of imploding and avoid spending a lot of money on any one pitcher. I succeeded for the most part. I’m bound to have a clunker or two among Chen, Chacon, Pavno, and Robertson, but that’s what the reserve round is for. Plus, 30% of pitching value goes underafted they say. While a bunch of that is from unexpected closers, I should be able to scrounge up another decent starter or two. I wouldn’t mind starting a second closer, if any of my backups luck into the job for a while.
According to Baseball Prospectus’ projections, my team accumulated $308 in value, the most of any team. Rototimes’ projections have my team just cracking the top half of the league. My prediction? Yet another second place finish, falling to one of the other decent teams that gets a little lucky.
Popularity: 2% [?]
Share This
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
April 25th, 2006 at 2:04 pm
[…] Fourth! Only two more to go! (I already wrote up my first place finish.) For the rest, use the HRBL Predictions category. […]