Here are the standard deviations for the interesting parts of the seventh and eighth innings. Notice that there aren’t any red spots before the ninth, although my cutoff for red was rather arbitrary. The ninth inning charts can be found here.
For the original article about what led me to try standard deviations, click here. (Yes, it turns out that the expected change in WP for any situation is exactly 0% — this assumption is how Studes calculates WP in the first place.)
The next step is to compare P values for each situation with these SD values to see which situations each system weights as more important relative to the other one. I’m happy to share my SD worksheet with anyone who wants to take a look — all bugs have been removed.
Also, check out this roundup of WPA usage around the blogosphere over at HardballTimes today.
Top 7
Bottom 7
Top 8
Bottom 8
There’s a new version (1.6.1 it’s called) of the WPA spreadsheet available from Baseball Graphs that fixes a formula mistake in the later innings.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
April 20th, 2006 at 12:04 pm
For comparison, check your color codes against Tango’s color codes by downloading the PDF file from his site:
http://www.tangotiger.net/#Crucial