You can find the AL prediction posts at these links:
Now let’s get it on with the Nationa League (and doesn’t the NL seem more than a wee bit worse than the AL?)
NL East
Philadelphia — 88
New York — 87
Atlanta — 85
Florida — 76
Montreal — 70
I think I’ve picked Philadelphia to win the East for the past four years. Why stop now? Actually, a mediocre pitching staff, the brilliance of the Braves’ front office, and a continued spendingn spree by the Mets are three pretty good reason. But Philadelphia boasts above-average offenders at potentially six of the eight positions: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Dimaggio, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, and Bobby Abreu. I’ve been on the Brett Myers bandwagon before it was going, but the Phillies success likely lies in the arms of Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson. The fact that I’m predicting a division title for the Phillies should tell you that I like those two.
My buddy Doug became a Mets fan when he moved to New York a few years ago. I spent this winter telling him the Mets would run away with the division. My bad, sorry to get your hopes up. People are correct in appointing David Wright to saint status at age 25, but the corner OFs are still so-so, and do the Mets even have a second basement? For all his fantasy value Jose Reyes is not a good hitter, and LoDuca’s still overrated by the old-school writers who are still bitter over Paul DePodesta’s Penny-and-Choi-break-up-the-Dodgers-chemistry trade two years ago. Pedro — love him. Glavine — might have one more good year in him. Heilman in the pen while Erickson, Zambrano, and Brian Bannister in the rotation? That’s gonna hurt. At least the Mets have a bullpen this year. No division title, Dougie, but the Wild Card’s looking nice.
I find it amusing that the “don’t pick against the Braves until they don’t win the division” catch-phrase has survived long enough to become a bonifide cliche. John Shuerholz is the Terry Ryan of the NL, except that he’s more willing to actually let his young guys wreak havoc on the rest of the division. The Braves have some stars, but more importantly they’re always able to plug holes from within the farm system. Understanding replacement talent and having quality young players is a deadly combination. But the Braves are attempting to plus a lot of holes. The corner OF spots, the 3-5 rotation spots, the entire bullpen, and catcher are all unknowns. (Although, I really like Brian McCann.)
The Marlins sure have this whole firesale thing down, huh? Other than immediate disappointment for the fans, it’s a pretty productive move. On average, the Marlins can probably sustain a $40 million payroll. But that’s not going to win many championships. So instead, they load up on young talent for cheap, let it mature a few years, supplement with more pricey veterans, bump the payroll up to $60 for a couple years, win a championship, and repeat. Nothing wrong with a cycle of competitiveness, especially when you can win two MLB Championships in seven years. This year’s team, while admittedly quite green, boasts five future All-Stars with Willingham, Hermida, and Jacobs joining the already-proven-but-young Willis and Cabrera. The pitching staff is pretty thin, but it’s hard to foresee complete suckage from every one of the uber-prospects in the organization. No, the offense isn’t quite league-average, and no, the pitching staff isn’t quite there, either. But this team isn’t Royals or Nationals bad. I might even be so bold as to predict a .500 season… nah.
The National are one of those teams that at first glance looks respectable. I like Brian Schneider, Nick Johnson, and Ryan Zimmerman. The corner OFs are respectable and the starting rotation is solidly average. But then you look at the players up the middle - Brandon “Who” Watson, Royce “Bat Of” Clayton, and Jose “I’ve Had Better Days” Vidro. And you look at the bullpen. And, most disconcerting of all, you remember that the GM is Jim Bowden. With most teams, you look at the upside and hope that smart changes will be made to replace the players that don’t work out. With the Nationals, you assume that the crappy players will stick the whole year, while the better players will be creatively replaced for the sake of “chemistry” or “Frank doesn’t like me.” Ugh. Combine a mediocre team with a Bowden penchant for underacheiving, and you’ve got a deadly fifth place combination.
Popularity: 2% [?]
Share This
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.