While surfing around for some good articles on bullpen usage and win-probability, I came across this article at Sabernomics about the probability of each square containing the winning score combination for that dumb football betting game. It’s writting by Doug Drinen, one of the better math professors I had in college, and a huge football research guy. Moral of the story? Try to get the 0/7 or 7/0 square and avoid the 2/2 square at all costs — that square has only one once since the merger. And it just happens to be a Bills - Dolphins game.
Edit 1/31/2008: Doug just wrote a follow-up article on the super bowl squares strategy, taking into account scores at the end of each quarter. The 0/7 squares is now even more valuable, almost five times as profitable as the average square. Great stuff.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
April 8th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
So good to enjoy such a interesting article that does not fall back on cheap rhetoric to get the idea covered. Thanks for an entertaining read.
April 19th, 2010 at 2:35 am
You have nice output on your blog and i like to read more on it so back with new stuff!!