Baseball Prospectus helped ESPN.com up its baseball IQ a few days ago with a two-part article by Nate Silver. Nate’s one of my favorite writers at BPro, mostly because his ideas are simple yet creative and his ability to crunch the numbers seems effortless. His article was a ranking of the 50 best players in baseball, with the following assumption: all major- and minor-league players were immediately released from their current contracts and their service time was reset to zero. Under those conditions every player would have three years of extremely low salary followed by three years of arbitration eligibility and finally free agency. As Nate described it, it’s the fantasy draft to end all fantasy drafts.
I can quibble with some of Nate’s picks, but overall he does it right. When I read other articles like this, people commonly make some major mistakes: unproven prospects get ranked too high (high risk factor), established major league players that aren’t stars get ranked too high (not enough upside), older stars get ranked too low (established high level is worth something even if it doesn’t last six more years.), and pitchers get too much love (don’t even get me started on relief pitchers).
Caution With Young Guns:
Only seven players made the list without major league experience, and one guy plays in Japan. They’re big names who are ready for the majors right now: Delmon Young, Justin Upton, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, Chris Young, Justin Verlander, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Most players of the future are also players of right now.
The Sky’s Not the Limit:
Paul Konerko, Carlos Lee, and Mark Buehrle are very good players with some All-Star appearances, but none belong in a Hall of Fame discussion and none could carry a team to the playoffs. It’s always surprising how much better the absolute stars are than the next tier. Upgrading from Terrence Long to Konerko helps a team just as much as upgrading from Konerko to ARod.
Respect Your Elders:
If you start your team with a Delmon Young type, the first couple years probably aren’t going to be as awe-inspiring as the next four. Flip that order around and it seems so much worse that it is: who wants a player with only four years left in his prime? You should! Remember, non-prime years from a superstar are still pretty damn good. Pedro (34 — the oldest) comes in at #35 on the list, two players are 31 (Jeter and Carpenter), and six players are 30 (ARod, Vlad, Tejada, DLee, Papi, and Berkman).
TINSTAAPP:
Sure, once pitchers make it through the injury nexus they’re a lot more likely not to have many injury problems during their career. But pitchers do tend to be a bit flakier in their year-to-year performances than hitters, and are slightly behind the eight ball as far as how much they can help their team versus a position player. While most teams these days carry as many pitchers as hitters (12 vs. 13), starters pitch at least 2/3 of the innings (buh-bye relievers). If I were starting a team I’d concentrate on finding four starters and seven hitters — that’s 36% pitching. Nate’s list contains 14 pitchers, or 28%. Notice that he doesn’t include pitchers like Josh Beckett (too risky) or Cliff Lee (not enough upside). Only three unproven pitchers make the list: Felix at #8 and Verlander/Matsuzaka (#49/50).
If I were a GM, I’d focus on putting together a core of extremely talented position players and then use the flakiness of pitching to my advantage by scrounging up a decent pitching staff each year, with the potential to find a diamond in the rough. And I’d also try to bribe the commissioner for the first pick: Mr. Pujols, you are the only choice.
(SI.com has a similar article posted about the NFL.)
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.