Comments on: Win Probability SD Leverage http://skyking162.com/2006/04/win-probability-sd-leverage/ baseball with a hint of lime Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:19:10 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3 By: studes http://skyking162.com/2006/04/win-probability-sd-leverage/#comment-74 studes Wed, 19 Apr 2006 11:04:38 +0000 http://skyking162.com/2006/04/win-probability-sd-leverage/#comment-74 That's pretty interesting, Sky. I find the results surprising, too. It also seems to say that one and two runs leads, and maybe even three-run leads are definitely more important than tie games. Perhaps this reflects how major league managers really think. Seems to me it indicates that something should be layered on top of these results -- perhaps the probability of an average pitcher (or even below-average) pitcher even getting into each situation. That’s pretty interesting, Sky. I find the results surprising, too. It also seems to say that one and two runs leads, and maybe even three-run leads are definitely more important than tie games. Perhaps this reflects how major league managers really think.

Seems to me it indicates that something should be layered on top of these results — perhaps the probability of an average pitcher (or even below-average) pitcher even getting into each situation.

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