In Part II of Know Your Cuts of Meat Know Your 2006 Baseball Teams, I’m tackling the NL Central. This series is my attempt to clear myself of pre-existing biases from 2005 by comparing teams’ records, runs scored, runs allowed, and Pythagorean records between last year and 2006.
Chicago
2005: 79-83 .475 4.3 RSG 4.4 RAG .493 exp 2006: 15-22 .405 3.8 RSG 5.1 RAG .365 exp
The first thing I noticed is that Chicago is bad. Really bad. Like Pittsburgh Pirates bad. The Cubbies didn’t score many rans last year, but they’ve managed to shave scoring down to under 4 runs per game this year. Even with a good pitching staff, that’s not going to cut it, and they’re allowing over 5 runs per game. If there’s on thing that hasn’t changed since last year it’s the futile hope that Kerry Wood and Mark Prior will pitch more real games than simulated ones. This team is a disaster.
Cincinnati
2005: 73-89 .451 5.1 RSG 5.5 RAG .463 exp 2006: 233-15 .605 5.2 RSG 4.9 RAG .526 exp
Most of the early focus has been on the Reds’ improved pitching staff. And while cutting .6 runs off the board each night is impressive, Cincinnati has to lower that 4.9 runs per game allowed number even further if they want a real shot at the post-season. The Reds still sport one of the league’s best offenses, but with three other teams in the NL Central scoring 5 runs per game as well, the division will be a battle of pitching.
Houston
2005: 89-73 .549 4.3 RSG 3.8 RAG .559 exp 2006: 22-16 .579 5.0 RSG 4.6 RAG .540 exp
The Astros are winning at a similar rate to last year, but in a completely different way. They’re both scoring and allowing three-quarters of a run more than last season, thanks mostly to some scrub starters filling in for Roger Clemens and Brandon Backe. I’m not sure this team could be set up any better to make Clemens into a hero, yet again.
Milwaukee
2005: 81-81 .500 4.5 RSG 4.3 RAG .519 exp 2006: 19-19 .541 5.0 RSG 4.9 RAG .561 exp
One of the more amusing phenomenons is the tendency of people to predict breakout seasons for players and teams the year after a true breakout season. Finishing at .500 last year was a breakout for the Brew Crew, and even winning a few more games this year should be considered holding steady. What hasn’t held steady is the pitching staff, allowing a half a run more this year than last. At least the young offense has upped their performance as well. If Ben Sheeets can make 20 starts the rest of the year, this team can finish over .500. If not, don’t pinch Carlos Lee.
Pittsburgh
2005: 67-95 .414 4.2 RSG 4.7 RAG .444 exp 2006: 11-27 .289 3.8 RSG 5.2 RAG .365 exp
The answer is yes — it is possible for the Pirates to be worse than last year. By a lot. The offense is half a run worse and the pitching staff is half a run worse — at least the Cubs are keeping them company in the basement. Who wouldn’t enjoy a Mark Cuban-owned baseball team?
St. Louis
2005: 100-62 .617 5.0 RSG 3.9 RAG .608 exp 2006: 24-14 .632 5.0 RSG 3.8 RAG .629 exp
Talk about consistency from one year to the next. The offense is scoring at the same rate as last year, thanks to Albert Pujols’ impersonation of, well, nobody’s ever started on a HR-pace like he has. And the pitching staff has actually shaved .1 runs of its stellar rate from last year. Here’s a case where consistency is a good thing.
NL Central Overall
The division breaks down into three tiers: The Cubs and Pirates are awful, the Astros, Brewers, and Reds all score and give up tons of runs, while the Cardinals’ pitching staff is the only good one in the division. Those tiers also have similarities in how they’ve changed since 2005. The bottom two teams have gotten worse, the mid-tier teams have all turned into run-and-shoot organizations, and the Cardinals have held steady.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.