skyking162

May 15th. Not only is today my cousin’s birthday (my entire family was born in May), but the baseball season is a month and a half old. Plenty can happen the rest of the year — we know the A’s are barely in second gear right now — but a month and a half’s worth of games is enough to judge a team so far.

I thought it would be interesting to compare teams in 2006 with their 2005 counterparts in terms of winning percentage, runs scored, and runs allowed. I find that I often hold over my impression of a team from season to season, when in fact their profiles change more than we realize.

Tackling a division per day, here’s how your 2006 NL West stacks up against 2005.

Arizona

2005: 77-85  .475  4.3 RSG  5.3 RAG  .406 exp
2006: 20-17  .541  5.0 RSG  4.4 RAG  .561 exp

Arizona’s improvement jumps right off the page, especially when you realize they overperformed their Pythagorean record last year and are underperforming it this year. Cutting a run per game from the runs allowed column and tacking three quarters of a run into the offense is a recipe for success. Brandon Webb is pitching like a Cy Young winner, Miguel Batista should continue to improve, and Juan Cruz is my pick as comeback player of the year. Plus, the bullpen is nasty. Offensively, Conor Jackson is a great surprise, but almost everyone this side of Tony Clark is having a decent year. If Craig Counsell or any of the outfielders should falter, Stephen Drew and Chris Young are ready to take the majors by storm.

Colorado

2005: 67-95  .414  4.6 RSG  5.3 RAG  .431 exp
2006: 21-17  .553  4.6 RSG  4.7 RAG  .490 exp

If it seems like the Rockies offense hasn’t improved since last year, that’s because it hasn’t, although we’re starting to realize a decreasing Coors Field effect means it’s not quite as bad as we think. While none of the young hitters appear to be stars, it’s nice to see a front office putting faith in youth — you at least get to experience the upslope of the aging curve. It’s the pitching side that has been miraculous so far this year. A Colorado pitching staff made up of no-names is allowing a mere 4.7 runs per game? That’s league-average! Before anyone gets all giddy about this team making a charge at the division title, remember they’re still allowing more runs per game than they’re scoring.

Los Angeles

2005: 77-85  .475  4.3 RSG  5.3 RAG  .406 exp
2006: 19-19  .500  5.2 RSG  4.5 RAG  .562 exp

Worst to first! At least according to their Pythagorean winning percentage. The Dodgers have basically flip-flopped their runs scored and runs allowed rates from last year but without a significant change in their winning percentage. Yet. Five minutes ago I had no idea that the Dodgers have the best offense in the league, evidently a result of JD Drew and Nomar pounding the ball while the rest of the offense finds ways to get on base. The rotation sports a nifty top three of Brad Penny, Brett Tomko, and Derek Lowe — all with ERAs under 3.00 so far. Doing their best to counteract that success are Jae Seo, Odalis Perez, and the entire bullpen outside of Takashi Saito and Joe Beimel. Going forward, there’s likely to be a lot of regression to the mean from both ends, but the Dodgers should remain in the race all season.

San Diego

2005: 82-80  .506  4.2 RSG  4.5 RAG  .473 exp
2006: 22-16  .579  4.5 RSG  4.0 RAG  .556 exp

Sure, they’re the defending NL West champs, but theh Padres actually outperformed their Pythagorean record last year by a handful of games. The 2006 team is scoring slightly more often and pitching spectacularly. More credit needs to be given to this offense for hitting in PETCO Park 81 games a year, which also means not all these pitchers are as studly as they appear. Except Jake Peavy. He’s the man.

San Francisco

2005: 75-87  .463  4.0 RSG  4.6 RAG  .473 exp
2006: 18-20  .474  4.5 RSG  5.4 RAG  .417 exp

I’m shocked the Giants have put up 4.5 runs per game without Barry Bonds hitting much. Oh that’s right, teams still walk him every other plate appearance. The Giants won’t outscore many teams, and yet they insist on giving up five and a half runs per game, one run per game worse than last year and second-worst in the league next to Florida. The Giants are the only team in the NL West without a shot at finishing above .500. When will everyone finally realize Brian Sabean’s one good move was bringing Barry Bonds to the Bay?

Division Overall

Only one team under .500 and it’s by only two games? This is not your younger self’s NL West. With nearly identical .560 Pythagorean records, the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers are clearly the division favorites, although the Dodgers have their work cut out for them yielding the other two teams a head start. I’ll take the Diamondbacks’ youth, bullpen, and Webb/Batistia/Cruz trifecta.

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This entry was posted on Monday, May 15th, 2006 at 7:05 am and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.