skyking162

I’m not Jose Reyes’ biggest fan for two reasons. One, before 2006 he was a bad major league player. Two, even with his impressive 2006 campaign, he’s still overrated. But overrated rates players have value. How much?

Proponents of Reyes point to his speed as a big reason he’s such a good player and better than OBP and SLG show. There are many stats out there that take stolen bases into account and spit out a single number representing how many runs he’s created . BPro’s VORP places him at 55 runs above replacement (sixth in NL), THT puts him at 116 total runs created (seventh in NL) and Win Shares credits him with 24 (ninth in NL). But there aren’t many popular rate stats that encapsulate Reyes’ baserunning. Sure, there’s EqA (Reyes’ .285 figure is moderately above average), but I’m not sure how mainstream that is.

Let’s try modifying OBP and SLG to account for Reyes’ stolen bases. A successful stolen base advances Reyes an extra base, helping his SLG. A caught stealing removes Reyes from the basepaths, hurting both his OBP and SLG. Assuming all his stolen base attempts are on second base (which isn’t quite accurate), we should begin by switching a single to an out for each of his 15 CS:

(180 Hs + 46 BBs + 1 HBP - 15 CS)/(648 PAs - 2 SH)

.351 Actual OBP
.328 Adjust OBP

Then remove a base from SLG for each of the 15 singles negated by a CS:

[(599 ABs * .499 SLG) - 15 CS]/599 ABs

.499 Actual SLG
.474 Init. Adj SLG

As I pointed out in my analysis of Frank Thomas, there are two valuable aspects to batting events:

• getting on base
• advancing other baserunners

When Reyes steals second, he deserves credit for advancing himself, but no credit for advancing other runners. From Tango’s table, the .29 run difference between a single and a double breaks down into .16 runs for advancing to second and .13 runs for advancing other runners. In other words, 55% of the value is getting to second. Therefore, for each SB, we’ll give Reyes .55 extra bases towards his SLG, making his overall modified SLG:

[(599 ABs * .499 SLG) - 15 CS + (57 SBs * .55)]/599 ABs

.499 Actual SLG
.526 Adjust SLG

Therefore, if you want to compare Reyes to other hitters without significant speed, go with Reyes adjusted OBP/SLG: .328/.526. Keeping in my Reyes has racked up many more PAs than most hitters, that profile falls in between Eric Byrnes and Bill Hall. Of course, OBP and SLG don’t account for other speed benefits (baserunning, avoiding GIDPs) or fielding ability.

Reyes has been a moderately above-average hitter in 2006. He gains value from his stolen bases (although not as much as most people believe), baserunning (about five runs), and fielding (very good fielding shortstops probably add 25 runs which is almost half his offensive value). Good player. But overrated.

Interesting note: Reyes doesn’t have any sac flies this season. That might be the only (lack of) skill he shares with Adam Dunn.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, September 16th, 2006 at 4:09 pm and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.