In his latest, John Sickels “eats crow” for underestimating Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. He presents his projections and the actual 2006 numbers and admits that he was wrong. However, this is really not as big of a deal as he implies Yankee fans think it is.
Take Cano:
147 games, 543 at-bats, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 17 homers, 32 walks, 78 strikeouts, 71 RBI, .295 average, .464 SLG, estimated OBP (does not include HBP) .334, isolated power .169.
The reality so far:
115 games, 455 at-bats, 155 hits, 40 doubles, 13 homers, 18 walks, 50 strikeouts, 73 RBI, .341 average, .519 SLG, actual OBP .365, isolated power .178.
Sickels was off by .045 points of batting average. Sure, that’s huge, but are even the biggest Cano fans going to think he’ll hit .340 again next year, especially if he beats his 455 ABs in 2006 by 150? That difference in AVG almost exactly explains the error in SLG, as Sickels nailed the ISO projection. Plus, Sickels actually erred in the positive direction on Cano’s walk-rate. I’m ok with people arguing that his projection was too low as far as AVG goes, but Sickels should be proud of the rest his projection.
Now take Melky:
He’s hitting .282/.363/.395 for the Yankees in 123 games. I infamously cracked that Melky “can’t XXXing hit” but he’s shown that he can.
No, that line doesn’t suck, but there shouldn’t be any Yankee fan happy with that performance from a corner outfielder. You might as well let Nick Punto play left field.
I don’t read a ton from John Sickels and I’ve never subscribed to any projection services of his, but I sure as hell don’t think he should be eating crow for those projections.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.