I’m sure everyone who reads this blog also reads The Hardball Times, but i want to link to a couple articles over there anyway.
The first is by David Gassko about whether Jonathan Papelbon is more valuable as a closer or starter. He wrote the article in response to a Nate Silver Baseball Prospectus article that concluded Papelbon should most definitely remain a closer. The brilliant twist Gassko includes is something called “replacement level chaining”, where a player isn’t just compared directly to a replacement level player, but instead to the reliever who immediately takes over the closer role, and then also factoring in the difference between the new closer and whoever takes over his role, etc, down the line. It’s explained quite well in the article. Gassko’s conclusion is that Papelbon should definitely be a starter, although the real decision-making factor is really whether Boston coaches think his makeup and injury profile would most benefit from pitching briefly every other day or more innings every fifth day. If you enjoy the topic, check out the discussion thread over at Baseball Think Factory.
The second article appeared today and was written by Jeff Sackmann. He discusses a few teams that could benefit from a Marlins-like rebuilding process, also known as a firesale. The required ingredients are a plethra of high-level, MLB-ready prospects and a few tradeable studs signed to reasonable contracts. You trade the veterans for prospects, adding to the hordes you already have, and then field a team of cheap young players with potential. Some will stick, some won’t, but you’ll find out within a year who the future studs of the franchise are, and you might be fortunate enough to contend for a Wild Card berth while saving tons of money. And heck, there’s nothing wrong with signing a free agent or two since the payroll should be on the low side.
In addition to this approach being a strong one, I don’t think you necessarily have to go all the way. For teams worried about financial flexibility, they should always be thinking about trading away higher-priced talent (even if it was originally homegrown) and letting young, cheap players play. This was exactly the motivation behind the A’s trading away Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. Instead of losing them or paying them AJ Burnett-sized contracts, the A’s gained prospects and benefitted from two young guys turning in better performances than either of the guys they replaced.
There’s been a lot of talk about the intelligence of rebuilding in cycles. If done effectively, however, the whole team doesn’t have to turn over at once. You can treat each player or each position as its own entity and make sure it cycles between young player/experienced stud/trade overpaid stud for more prospects/repeat. It was ludicrous to think the Marlins could possibly benefit from trading Dontrelle Willis or Miguel Cabrera this season, but in a few years, that shoul be exactly what they do, once they’ve enjoyed the limited years of controlled salary.
Check out those two articles.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.