skyking162

Through some mathematical trickery, I took the data available from Baseball-Reference (one chart of results AT a specific count and one chart of results THROUGH a specific count) and figured the percentage of balls, strikes, and balls put in play on each count for Adam Dunn. InPlay includes any event other than a ball and strike, including homeruns and HPBs. First, the whole table:

Count	Ball	Strike	InPlay
0-0	46%	45%	9%
1-0	44%	45%	11%
2-0	43%	45%	12%
3-0	52%	43%	5%
0-1	50%	38%	12%
1-1	44%	42%	14%
2-1	35%	48%	18%
3-1	33%	48%	19%
0-2	61%	26%	13%
1-2	58%	25%	17%
2-2	46%	30%	24%
3-2	36%	30%	34%

Now, each result in its own table:

balls	0	1	2	3
0	46%	44%	43%	52%
1	50%	44%	35%	33%
2	61%	58%	46%	36%

strikes	0	1	2	3
0	45%	45%	45%	43%
1	38%	42%	48%	48%
2	26%	25%	30%	30%

inPlay	0	1	2	3
0	9%	11%	12%	5%
1	12%	14%	18%	19%
2	13%	17%	24%	34%

Now, league-average data would be really interesting here, but I don’t have that available yet. It’s not a surprise that pitchers throw Dunn more balls on 0-2 and 1-2 counts. I’m surprised how few are thrown on 2-1, 3-1, and 3-2 counts — only about a third of the time. Referring back to previous data, Dunn’s wOBA on balls contacted is the best on 2-1 and 3-1 counts (other than 2-0).

In a previous post I noted that Dunn was relatively weak when ending his plate appearances on 0-2 and 1-2 counts, because he puts the ball in play a lot less than most hitters. While that’s true, this data shows he takes a ton of balls on those counts as well. And since he absolutely crushes the ball compared to the average hitter when he does makes contact on 0-2 and 1-2 counts, things aren’t as bad as they seem. This table shows percentage of strikes that Dunn contacts by count (here all contacted balls count as strikes).

inP/str	0	1	2	3
0	17%	19%	20%	11%
1	23%	24%	27%	29%
2	34%	40%	45%	53%

The next step is to present the data not just when something happens at each count, but what ends up happening in a plate appearance after Dunn reach a certain count.

Popularity: 1% [?]

This entry was posted on Wednesday, September 5th, 2007 at 1:09 pm and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.