skyking162

I have bunch of ideas rattling around in my brain in regards to using performance by ball-strike count information. But since I don’t yet have a Retrosheet or PITCH f/x database running on my iBook, most of it will have to wait. For now, here are a few things you could do with such data.

wOBA when the ball’s put in play, by count for Dunn, league, and dunn relative to league. wOBA is basically linear weights per plate appearance, but on the OBP scale (.330 is league average, .400 is damn good.)

DUNN

AT	wOBA	wOBA BIP
0-0	.512	.512
1-0	.482	.482
2-0	.557	.557
3-0	.466	.336
0-1	.423	.423
1-1	.507	.507
2-1	.521	.521
3-1	.633	.518
0-2	.156	.465
1-2	.144	.373
2-2	.198	.447
3-2	.417	.467
TOT	.374	.475

LEAGUE

AT	wOBA	wOBA BIP
0-0	.381	.381
1-0	.388	.388
2-0	.405	.405
3-0	.500	.495
0-1	.346	.346
1-1	.362	.362
2-1	.375	.375
3-1	.560	.401
0-2	.177	.314
1-2	.188	.319
2-2	.214	.344
3-2	.402	.376
TOT	.329	.362

DUNN:LEAGUE

AT	wOBA	wOBA BIP
0-0	1.3	1.3
1-0	1.2	1.2
2-0	1.4	1.4
3-0	.9	.7
0-1	1.2	1.2
1-1	1.4	1.4
2-1	1.4	1.4
3-1	1.1	1.3
0-2	.9	1.5
1-2	.8	1.2
2-2	.9	1.3
3-2	1.0	1.2

When Dunn puts the ball in play, he’s a stud. We know that. He also strikes out a lot. One reason is that he takes more pitches and goes deeper into counts. But this chart also shows he does not perform well with two-strikes. Take a look at the last four lines in the chart above. Dunn’s actually worse than league average with two strikes. He still crushes the ball when he hits it, but he doesn’t hit it nearly enough. Now, what you’d actually like to know is the expected outcome of Dunn’s plate appearances after an 0-2 count, not just what he does on that exact count. But considering he’s below average on all two-strike counts, it’s hard to imagine that the few times he works out a walk after getting two-strikes makes up the difference.

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Next, here’s a way at looking at how often Dunn ends his plate appearances in certain counts. With the proper data you could figure things out exactly, but I worked out an estimation using what I had. Consider it proof of concept. The count starts in the upper left and moves right on balls and down on strikes. The BB and K columns represent walks and strikeouts that occur with the different number of strikes and balls.

DUNN

	0	1	2	3	BB
0	.091	.051	.024	.005	.031
1	.053	.059	.051	.027	.045
2	.023	.048	.073	.070	.075
K	.045	.076	.092	.063	

LEAGUE

	0	1	2	3	BB
0	.121	.077	.028	.002	.016
1	.091	.090	.058	.025	.026
2	.042	.080	.081	.060	.039
K	.033	.056	.049	.027	

DUNN:LEAGUE

	0	1	2	3	BB
0	.7	.7	.9	2.9	1.9
1	.6	.7	.9	1.1	1.7
2	.5	.6	.9	1.2	1.9
K	1.4	1.4	1.9	2.3	

Not surprisingly, these numbers show Dunn going further into counts, striking out more and walking more.

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Also, if I was presenting one metric at a time, I’d present it in the above form, as it locates similar counts next to each other. Here’s an example using league-average homeruns per batted ball rate. Obviously, more balls and fewer strikes lead to more aggressiveness, and therefore more homeruns. Players seem to have the same confidence in 0-0, 2-1, and 3-2 counts.

HR-noK	0	1	2	3
0	.044	.047	.063	.090
1	.031	.038	.044	.057
2	.021	.026	.035	.044

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