Mark it down. I’m now a bandwagon Tampa Bay Devil Rays fan. Looking back, all the signs were there — my pre-season predictions gave the Rays their best-ever record and I drafted seven DRays for my AL-only fantasy team* (Shields, Reyes, Niemann, Upton, Baldelli, Gomes, and Pena.) 2008’s only going to bring more success. Here’s how:
Improve the defense - In 2007 the starting rotation has a 5.18 ERA, but with a 4.21 FIP — that’s third-best in the AL. Tampa Bay fielders are costing the team almost a run per game. Ouch. In 2008 the outfielders will stay the same, with Crawford, Upton, and Young playing almost every day. There’s some hope that Upton will continue to improve, as he’s new to the outfield, but the real changes will have to come in the infield. Carlos Pena’s reputed to be a good fielder and he’s the starter at 1B until Scott Borus takes him on a fantastic free agent voyage. 2B and SS are the positions to look at. Here’s the plan for 2B, from DRaysBay:
[T]he Rays have asked third baseman Akinori Iwamura to work on playing second base this winter. The team had the move in mind from the time they acquired Iwamura who’s familiarity with the Nippon Pro League third base translates better to an American second base based on less reactionary more range play.
Iwamura has a reputation as a good fielder, but that hasn’t showed up in the advanced fielding metrics this year. If his skills do fit better with 2B, that’s great. Who will play third? Evan Longoria, a top prospect who hit .300/.400/.520 between AA and AAA this season.
At shortstop, Brendan Harris’ 102 OPS+ is good, but his fielding is atrocious. Here’s a place where the Rays need to seek help outside the organization. The free agent class is strong in the fielding department, but can’t hit: Eckstein, Uribe, Vizquel, Izturis, etc. I’d settle for Eckstein, although his price will likely be higher than his value. They have pieces to trade, either an extra OF/DH like Baldelli or Gomes, a starting pitcher prospect, or even Harris himself. Who could they possibly target as a replacement? Edgar Renteria, who the Braves might like to replace with Escobar? Ryan Theriot? Jack Wilson? Bill Hall?
With these changes, the fielding still doesn’t look great. But it’s better, and the offense actually improves a bit.
Find a bullpen - The 2007 DRays bullpen posted a 6.85 ERA, giving up almost 1.5 HRs per 9 innings. Yes, some blame goes to the fielders, but jeez. Part of the problem is that the relievers were asked to throw so many innings (35%). Joe Maddon had to dip into the dregs of the pen way too often. Better fielding should allow the starters to last a little longer. But the team also needs to take Earl Weaver’s advice and put the starting pitching prospects who don’t make the rotation in the bullpen. Even just bringing that bullpen ERA down to 5.00 would be worth five wins (and 4.50 isn’t out of the question).
Sign Barry Bonds - Would he take one year at $10 million to DH? It’s worth it. This move would really make trading Gomes or Baldelli (or DYoung) for a shortstop possible. Barry’s still a monster at the plate and would love hitting in Tampa Bay. Is Barry smart enough to realize that the DRays actually are close to contending for a playoff spot? If so, he might take this chance. Tampa Bay seems willing to spend the money on the right fit. Do it.
Put it all together - Move the pieces around to improve fielding. Enjoy better production at DH, 3B, 2B, and SS. Watch the natural improvement of young hitters. Let the young pitching prospects make the impact that the hitters had this year. Finally trust that the bullpen will only occasionally blow a game.
2007 RS/G: 4.85
2008 RS/G: 5.45
2007 RA/G: 5.80
2008 RA/G: 5.00
2007 Wins: 67
2008 Wins: 88
I don’t think any of those 2008 forecasts are hyperbolic wishcasting. I could even see the DRays giving up fewer than 5 runs per game if the young pitchers really take off. But ok, it’s your turn, go ahead and call me crazy.
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*Buying 7 DRays evidently wasn’t a bad strategy as I finished in first and could potentially keep five of these guys for next year. Maybe I can work out a trade for three more DRays and have an all-Tampa Bay keeper list. That would definitely be baseball with a hint of lime.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
September 26th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Hah! DRays signing Barry. I love it. It will n e v e r happen though. That would be a pretty interesting turn of events, especially if they made the playoffs, which I’m afraid is still a couple years off. I hear there are some good ‘roids dealers in Florida, though - maybe that will help.
But I’m glad to see you’re on the DRays- er, Rays bandwagon now. I only wish their stadium wasn’t so depressingly ugly, non-descript, and empty all the time. It makes watching highlights from the Trop kinda sad.