Considering basically every team in the NL still has a chance to make the playoffs, looking forward to next season might seem stupid. But once I start sorting through the flukey and unlucky performances to find my 2007 Cy Young winner, it’s pretty easy to pick out who’s heading into 2008 either under- or over-rated.
Let’s begin with the over-rated starters — those whose xFIP’s are the highest compared to their actual ERAs. xFIP is a fielding-independent ERA based on strikeout-rate, walk-rate, and an extrapolated homerun-rate. It’s been shown that groundball rate is a better indicator of future homerun-rate than homerun-rate itself. Also, the percentage of flyballs that turn into homeruns is not indicative of a pitcher’s skill and tends to even out over time. xFIP is not the end-all of pitcher metrics, but if you have to pick one that’s readily available, I think it’s the best for projecting context-neutral performance.
The chart below shows the top 25 over-rated starters headed into 2007 (min 100 IP in 2007.) Data is through the games on September 17. The columns to the right of ERA-xFIP represent some of the reasons why a pitcher might be under- or over-rated. UERA is the number of unearned runs allowed per nine innings (pitchers are not totally without blame for those runs.) DER is defensive efficiency (a higher ratio represents better fielding. DER is basically 1-BABIP.) HR/FB is the percentage of flyballs that are homeruns. LOB% is the percentage of runners that were left on base.
Keep in mind that pitchers may benefit in 2008 from some of the same biases they did this year. For example, Chris Young’s HR-rate is likely to be lower than expected again in 2008 because he’ll still be pitching half his games in spacious PETCO. Finally, remember that “over-rated” is not necessarily the same as “bad”. These are pitchers you may want to avoid taking too early in fantasy drafts, for example.
Last Tm IP Diff xFIP UERA DER HR/FB LOB% Young SD 156 -1.83 4.60 .35 .766 5.1% 74% Trachs BAL 141 -1.73 6.21 .19 .725 8.3% 75% Bannis KC 159 -1.70 5.09 .28 .745 7.8% 72% Lowry SF 156 -1.53 5.45 .46 .716 8.1% 74% Penny LAN 197 -1.39 4.27 .18 .705 3.6% 76% Kenned OAK 101 -1.34 5.71 .35 .711 8.5% 73% Gorzel PIT 185 -1.33 4.78 .15 .713 8.1% 77% Perez NYN 165 -1.28 4.71 1.03 .733 10.9% 73% Glavin NYN 190 -1.22 5.10 .15 .724 8.9% 75% Chico WAS 150 -1.18 5.79 .60 .718 12.4% 74% Billin LAN 135 -1.03 4.17 .13 .723 10.5% 82% Buehrl CHA 195 -1.02 4.57 .23 .717 9.1% 76% Lackey LAA 202 -1.00 4.21 .53 .692 9.1% 76% Hernan NYN 144 -.98 4.73 .19 .778 13.8% 77% Cain SF 187 -.97 4.68 .14 .722 6.0% 72% Peavy SD 203 -.96 3.35 .18 .724 6.0% 78% Carmon CLE 202 -.95 4.02 .23 .719 11.2% 77% Wainwr STL 182 -.94 4.65 .25 .693 6.6% 75% Verlan DET 184 -.91 4.38 .30 .714 7.6% 74% Haren OAK 211 -.90 4.02 .60 .711 10.2% 75% Marqui CHN 183 -.88 4.95 .59 .750 11.4% 71% Maine NYN 174 -.86 4.58 .37 .738 10.9% 75% Weaver LAA 150 -.85 4.75 .42 .686 7.9% 73% Escoba LAA 190 -.85 4.31 .24 .700 5.9% 73% Washbu SEA 181 -.81 5.34 .45 .709 9.5% 70%
Here are some interesting things that caught my eye:
- Oliver Perez is allowing over one unearned run per game. None of the other members of the Mets rotation is above .37.
- Jake Peavy has the lowest xFIP of any player on the list at 3.35. Only Erik Bedard and Brandon Webb posted lower xFIPs this season.
- Steve Trachsel has the highest xFIP of any pitcher on the list. Steve Trachsel isn’t a good bet for 2008? That’s crazy talk.
- Matt Cain’s gotten the reputation as a hard-luck loser in 2007. Yes, his Win-Loss record is unlucky relative to his ERA, but his ERA has been lucky.
- Orlando Hernandez makes the list even though he’s given up HRs on almost 15% of flyballs. Why? Well, he gives up a lot of flyballs for one. But most importantly, the Mets are turning 77% of his balls in play into outs. That’s sort of like pitching against all .230 hitters.
- John Maine and Tom Glavine make it four Mets starters on the list. New York really owes their success in 2007 to hitting and fielding. And if there’s anything to be read from their lack of success in Philadelphia, it’s that allowing a lot of flyballs in a homerun park against a lineup with a lot of power is not a good strategy.
- Chad Billingsley has stranded 82% of all baserunners (with the help of his bullpen.) Yes, better pitchers have higher LOB%s because scoring occurs when batting events chain together and good pitchers allow fewer positive batting events overall. But 82% is Pedro circa 2000 territory.
- Brad Penny’s given up only six homeruns all year. Yes, he’s turned into more of a groundball pitcher this year, but only allowing 3.6% of flyballs to turn into homeruns is not sustainable. Chien-Ming Wang is at 6% and Brandon Webb is at 9%.
Anything else you find interesting? The next installment will be the pitchers headed into 2008 under-rated by ERA.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.