One of these days I’ll post some complete player analysis that takes into account hitting, ballpark, fielding. But even armed with that information, it’s difficult to convince some people that their perceptions of certain players are just way off base.
One such player is Jimmy Rollins. He’s an MVP front-runner, along with Matt Holliday and Prince Fielder, but was actually about the 10th-best player in the National League this season. Now, before I trot out some numbers, let me make a point of saying that there’s absolutely nothing wrong with being the 10th-best player in the NL. That’s awesome. The Phillies would not be in the playoffs without Jimmy Rollins. He’s an excellent player that many people erroneously think is the single best player.
The Rollins argument usually goes something like this:
Rollins played in every game and did everything: power, speed, runs scored, clutch play, very good defense at SS, etc. He’s in the 20-20-20-20 club with 30 HRs, 38 2Bs, 20 3Bs, and 41 SBs. He scored 139 runs and drove in 94 — from the lead-off spot!
Those are great numbers, but the RBIs and Runs are highly team-dependent. Batting in front of Utley, Howard, and Rowand and playing in Citizens’ bank park surely helps the totals. Also, while playing every day and racking up 778 plate appearances is quite valuable, Jimmy also racked up the outs, 521 of them, good for tops in the NL. How does that compare with other top players?
Cnt Player *Out* 1 Jimmy Rollins 521 2 Jose Reyes 517 11 Eric Byrnes 466 14 Hanley Ramirez 451 21 Matt Holliday 443 28 David Wright 427 31 Prince Fielder 419 32 Miguel Cabrera 418 36 Albert Pujols 413 37 Carlos Beltran 411 43 Ryan Howard 400 48 Todd Helton 392 60 Chase Utley 362 61 Chipper Jones 362
The 159-out difference between Rollins and Utley/Chipper is the equivalent of making every out for six straight games. Well, yeah, people argue, when you play more, you make more outs! But if you’re going to credit Rollins for playing more, you can’t sweep the outs under the rug.
I would point out Rollins’ relatively weak OBP as an Achilles heal, but the pro-Rollins side would again trot out the “but he played more than the guys with good OBPs” argument. How about this, though? How many outs would each of the other players make if the disparity in plate appearances were filled by a scrub — say someone with a horrifically low .280 OBP? Here’s that same list:
Player w/ scrub Jose Reyes 526 Eric Byrnes 524 Jimmy Rollins 521 Carlos Beltran 513 Hanley Ramirez 503 Matt Holliday 495 Ryan Howard 494 Chipper Jones 490 Prince Fielder 489 Miguel Cabrera 489 Albert Pujols 484 Chase Utley 481 David Wright 475 Todd Helton 466
.280 is an extremely low OBP, probably a bit below replacement-level, and only two guys catch Rollins in outs, with the rest of the MVP candidates 20 to 60 outs behind.
Ok, I realize avoiding outs isn’t the only thing that matters — what you do when you’re not making outs also wins games. Since I’m purposely trying to avoid using runs created (it scares people), let’s use times on base and total bases.
For times on base, I’m crediting the rest of the hitters with an OBP .280 for the missing plate appearances. (Yes, this should be eerily similar to the outs list.)
Player OB w/ scrub Todd Helton 322 Albert Pujols 319 David Wright 315 Matt Holliday 306 Chipper Jones 305 Miguel Cabrera 300 Chase Utley 298 Prince Fielder 296 Hanley Ramirez 293 Ryan Howard 290 Jose Reyes 274 Eric Byrnes 269 Jimmy Rollins 268 Carlos Beltran 264
Rollins is ahead of only one other pseudo-MVP candidate.
Here’s total bases, using a .380 slugging percentage for the ABs filling the gap.
Player TB Matt Holliday 414 Prince Fielder 408 Hanley Ramirez 388 Chipper Jones 387 Miguel Cabrera 381 Jimmy Rollins 380 Ryan Howard 380 Albert Pujols 378 David Wright 372 Chase Utley 371 Carlos Beltran 352 Todd Helton 333 Eric Byrnes 322 Jose Reyes 300
Rollins is sixth on the list, and doesn’t hold much of a lead over Wright and Utley.
Yes, Rollins deserves extra credit for playing everyday and accumulating so many plate appearances. But other players deserve credit for performing at a much higher level even though they didn’t play as much. When you fill the playing time gap with a really crappy player (.280 OBP .380 SLG), many players jump ahead of Rollins. If you’re already shouting at your computer “but what about JRoll’s defense — he’s a shortstop”, then stay tuned — you’re ahead of the game. But I hope I’ve made my point:
Rollins’ quantity of playing time is NOT worth more than others players’ quality of playing time.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.