skyking162

No, I haven’t seen anything suggesting the Rays want to move Mr. Crawford. He’s viewed by many as the face of the organization, but I think pursuing a trade would be an absolutely fantastic strategy towards making Tampa Bay a better team in 2008 and beyond. Why? Three reasons:

1. Carl Crawford is overrated.
2. Save the team money.
3. Trade from a strength to fill a weakness.

1. Seriously, he’s overrated — good, but overrated. Crawford’s a base-stealer with slightly above-average on-base and slugging skills. His OPS+ scores the past three seasons were 111,111, and 113. If you ignore the stolen-bases (which have value but are, again, extremely overrated), you basically have Randy Winn. Adding back the speed adds about seven runs.

On defense, Crawford’s a left-fielder who plays the position slightly better than average. He’s got range, but doesn’t always take a good path to the ball and isn’t known for his arm.

Overall, Crawford’s value of 37 total runs above replacement in 2007 was 9th among all corner outfielders, but there were 13 players within 10 runs. Again, he’s a good player — a borderline All-Star — but I’m guessing most teams think he’s worth more than he really is.

2. Salary-wise, Crawford’s under contract for 2008 at $5.25 mil, 2009 for $8.25 mil with a $2.5 mil buyout, and 2010 for $10 mil with a $1.25 mil buyout. At $2.5 mil per 10 runs above replacement-level, Crawford’s worth about $9 mil as a free agent. Here’s what Tampa Bay would have to pay to keep Crawford for one, two, or three more seasons (including the buyouts), along with what he’d be worth:

Years  Salary   Value
1    $9 mil   $9 mil
2    $14.25  $18 mil
3    $23.5   $27 mil

If you’re the Rays, do you want to spend just under market value for a free agent corner outfielder? I’d say no — you need to be more efficient with your money in order to contend. Assuming other teams will want Crawford, you’d have about $8 million to spend in other ways in each of the next three seasons.

3. Looking at the team as a whole, the Rays have an abundance of outfielder/first base/designated hitter types and desperately need a middle infielder who can hit and field, and could use some more pitching arms. Brendan Harris is not the answer at shortstop and while I like both their chances, there’s no guarantee that Iwamura can play second base and Evan Longoria adjusts to the major-league level. Tampa does have a stable of young pitching prospects already, but some will turn out to be busts, and there’s a whole rotation and bullpen to fill out.

Who will take over in left field? I’m not sure. Jonny Gomes isn’t a great outfielder and Rocco Baldelli, well, he’s Rocco Baldelli. Elijah Dukes, Justin Ruggiano, and Fernando Perez are other extremely questionable options. However, a corner outfield spot is one of the better places to have a question mark. It’s better to push players towards the easier end of the defensive spectrum than the other way around. It seems like teams are always looking for a spot to stick a big bat. With the current traffic jam of OF/1B/DHs on the Rays, there just isn’t an opening for any big bat the Rays might stumble upon. By trading Crawford, it’s almost like they’re receiving an extra prospect in the deal, since the trade would create a spot for their own guys to play.

Potential Trade Partners — Finally, which teams might make a good trading partner for the Rays? It would need to be a team in search of an outfielder, a team looking to add an established young hitter. The organization would have to show a pattern of overestimating the value of a guy like Crawford. And the return would need to be some combination of cheap or pre-arbitration pitchers, infielders, and maybe even an outfielder to replace Crawford himself. Here are some options I came up with:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - Ned Colletti has made it clear Matt Kemp is available, and Crawford is exactly the Dodgers’ type of player. There’s a reasonable chance Kemp turns out to as valuable as Crawford, for a fraction of the price.
• St. Louis Cardinals - Who knows what the new regime will be like, but the Cardinals certainly need to get younger and better in the outfield. I’m still an Anthony Reyes fan and Tampa could at least ask about Adam Wainright.
• New York Mets - Shawn Green is a goner, and Lastings Milledge has been on the block for his whole career, it seems. New York also has some intriguing young pitchers. To the Mets, Crawford’s salary is a positive, but I wonder if Minaya and Randolph would be ok with dueling leadoff hitters atop the lineup.
• San Francisco Giants - With Bonds gone, Brian Sabean’s made a point of saying the Giants will get younger. But who would the Rays want from San Francisco? Is there any chance they trade Lincecum or Cain, who’s coming off a strange year?
• Pittsburgh Pirates - No, the Pirates really don’t need an outfielder with Nady, Duffy, and Bay already there, but it’s no secret Jack Wilson is trait bait. He’s a very good fielding shortstop who has shown to be a league-average hitter two of the past four seasons. Wilson makes about $7 million per year the next two years, but has a very limited no-trade clause. (Although, when you already play in Pittsburgh, you’re not going to veto much, I don’t think.)
• Minnesota Twins - Again, nobody knows quite what the Twins organizational philosophy will be like with Terry Ryan abdicating the GM spot, but Crawford is a toolsy player and the Twins historically like those guys. Minnesota’s current strength is young pitching, and nabbing some combination of Garza, Slowey, Baker, Bonser, Perkins, and Neshek would be great for the Rays. A trade is more likely if the Twins don’t re-sign Torii Hunter.

Any of those scenarios that seem far-fetched? Any teams that you think would jump at Carl Crawford and have young, MLB-ready talent to give up in return?

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This entry was posted on Thursday, October 11th, 2007 at 4:10 pm and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.