skyking162

I really don’t like trying to predict the World Series winner, because the playoffs really are huge a crapshoot. Even if you attempt to account for sh*t that does work in the playoffs (like a stud reliever, strikeout pitchers, and good fielders), you might as well still flip a coin. (I’ll eventually show that the Red Sox, my favorite, will only win 18% of the time, compared to an average of 12.5% for all playoff teams.)

Straight Pythagorean wins would rank the teams like this:
101 Boston
97 New York
92 Cleveland
90 Anaheim
90 Colorad0
87 Philadelphia
86 Chicago
79 Arizona

Yes, even without assuming the National League is less talented than the American League, there isn’t an NL team with a run differential better than an AL team. Of course, the NL automatically gets a team in the World Series (which is slightly more fair than the U.S. always qualifying for the Little League World Series.) It’s interesting that Colorado could be considered the NL favorite, even though they only had about a 10% chance of making the playoffs at one point last night. Can their team MVP be Trevor Hoffman?

Here’s how I see the first round going:

Red Sox over Angels — The Red Sox were the best AL team in preventing runs, yielding only 4.1 per game. The Angels scored 5.1 a game. Papelbon, Okajima, and the top three starters will pitch more frequently than during the regular season, so let’s say the Angels score 4.4 runs per game. On the flip side, Boston scored 5.4 runs per game while the Angels allowed 4.5 runs per game. I think the Angels get the same benefit as the Sox from being able to throw their stud closer more often and eliminating the bottom two starters from the rotation, so we’ll give the Red Sox 4.85 runs per game. A little Pythag shows Boston should win 55% of the games, giving them a 58% chance to win the series.

Yankees over Indians — With the Yankees on offense… a lot of runs will be scored. Ok, seriously, now — they scored 6.0 runs per game while the Indians gave up 4.3. I really like the Indians’ bullpen (even Borowski, whose peripherals were better than his ERA implies) and their CC-Fausto punch is the best in the playoffs, so I’ll split the difference with a slight weighting toward the Indians: 5.0. For the Indians, they scored 5.0 runs per game while the Yankees gave up 4.8. Wang and Pettitte aren’t totally dominant, and I’m not sure I like the Yankees bullpen outside of Joba. Let’s say the Indians score 4.9 runs per game. The algebra says the Yankees should win 51% of the games and take the series 53% of the time.

Cubs over Diamondbacks — The Cubs score 4.6 runs per game and the DBs give up 4.5. Let’s pretend Arizona does know a secret and they’ll hold the Cubs to 4.5 runs per game. With the Diamondbacks at the plate, they score 4.4 runs per game while the Cubs give up 4.3. Again, given the magic, I’ll say the DBs score 4.4 per game. The math says the Cubbies win 52% of the games and take the series 54% of the time (even accounting for Arizona’s old family recipe for clutchiness.)

Rockies over Phillies — Phillies score 5.5 and allow 5.1, while the Rockies score 5.3 and allow 4.7. Yes, these ballparks will produce some runs. I don’t see either team as having an especially strong front of the rotation or a knock-out bullpen, so I’m splitting the difference down the midde: 5.1 runs per game for the Phillies and 5.2 for the Rockies. Colorado’s expected to win 51% of the games and the series 52% of the time.

Assuming I’m right, I’ve got the next round winners as Colorado (58% over the Cubs) and Boston (52% over the Yankees). Between those teams, I’ve got the Sox winning winning it all 60% of the time. Of course, the probability of the Red Sox, to actually win all three rounds is only 18%.

Finally, it’s your turn. I’m pretty sure the last 17 paragraphs are considered statistical bias, but go ahead and pick one team to win the World Series. Leave a comment if you want bragging rights in a month. (Poll closes at noon on Wednesady.)

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