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Update: In this article I used $2.5 million per win for free agents. It’s actually more like $4 million, meaning Lowell was “worth” $14 million in 2007 and is “worth” about $10 million per season going forward. Of course, when you consider that overall teams spend $2 million per marginal win, free agents are a huge rip-off compared to slaves or arbitration-eligible players. If Lowell signs for $10-12 million a season, that’s not an awful free agent signing. But I’d rather have David Wright. (Hat tip to ekogan at BTF.)

Until last night, the biggest free agent name available to play third base was Mike Lowell. Boston wants him back, Philadalphia yearns for him, and now the Yankees may make him an offer. Lowell had a great offensive season, capped off by winning the World Series MVP. He has a reputation as a good fielder and is a popular guy in the clubhouse. But I’m still going to say it:

Signing Mike Lowell as a free agent this off-season will probably be a mistake. Why? Four reasons:

1. Lowell’s offensive performance in 2007 was well above his established level of performance and can fully be explained by a flukishly high batting average on balls in play. Mike Lowell’s highest batting average before 2007 was .293 in 2004. This year he hit .324. His career high BABIP was .299 in 2004. This year it was .337. Removing those 38 points yields rate stats exactly in line with his career levels:

   Season   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
   2007    .324  .378  .501  .879
   Career  .285  .343  .461  .804
   Diff    .039  .035  .040  .075

   Now, it’s perfectly possible that Dave Magadan, Mr. Cage-Rate, helped Lowell make a real improvement. But rather than think that improvement didn’t effect his isolated power, walk-rate, or anything other than his batting average on balls in play, the more straight forward assumption is that he got a little lucky. Smart teams don’t pay for luck.

   Oh, and if you think any teams might pay for his high RBI total, I’ll point out Lowell’s .358 AVG with runners in scoring position and the fact that he was able to hit behind Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez. Again, neither of those factors are evidence of a repeatable skill. Well, the second one’s repeatable if he stays in Boston, but you know what I mean.

2. Fenway park is a good place to hit and especially rewards hitters who can hit flyball doubles off the Green Monster in left field. If a non-Boston team signs Lowell, he won’t have that advantage any more. Lowell’s always been known as a doubles hitter, spanking at least 35 of them in seven of his eight full seasons. Fenway has a doubles park factor of 1.35, meaning it increases doubles by 35% overall. Yes, Lowell posted similar numbers in Florida, a pitcher’s park, but it’s likely Fenway is covering up some declining skills. (Then again, he does have more doubles on the road than at home during his two seasons with Boston.)
3. Lowell will be 34 years old during the 2008 season. Every free agent signing is a risk, but older players carry more risk. I’m worried about a small letdown in 2008, and then there’s 2009, 2010, and possibly 2011 to worry about, too. The list of 37 year old players who hit like their 33 year old selves is a short one. Again, it’s perfectly possible for Lowell to maintain his current pace, but it’s not something to count on or pay for.
4. Fielding was not actually a strength of Lowell’s this past season and is a skill that clearly declines with age. Two fielding systems based on separate sets of fielding data peg him around average for a third baseman: one is at -6 runs and one is at +5 runs. UZR, the best publicly available fielding measure, puts him at -6, +9, +1, +20, and -7 runs from 2003 through the first half of 2007. You can’t be more solidly average defensively than an average-fielding third baseman.

All that being said, how much is Mike Lowell actually worth? Well, in 2007 he was 3.5 wins better than a replacement player, .337 batting average and all. Assuming free agents sign for about $2.5 million per win on top of the half million league minimum, that puts Lowell as a $9 million player, right at his 2007 Red Sox salary. If you adjust his offensive production down because of his fluky BABIP, he’s more like a $7 to $8 million player. From what’s been reported so far, it seems like two years at $12 million per season is the starting point for his services — definitely not a bargain. If negotiations move towards $13 to $14 million over four years, write your senator and urge him to start federal hearings.

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 30th, 2007 at 6:10 am and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.