Dugout Central is the new blog for Mike Pagliarulo’s scouting company, which used to be called Baseline Report. I’m not sure why they moved it, but it could be because they were slammed for repeatedly writing stupid things and wanted a fresh start. The group now mostly posts long scouting reports on players and teams, which may or may not be decent. I haven’t read many.
But their most recent rebuttal against Terry Francona’s decision to start Bobby Kielty in right field against CC Sabathia in game one of the ALCS instead of JD Drew is ridiculous. Here it is, in it’s full gory:
The Red Sox have decided to start Bobby Kielty in left field against CC Sabathia in place of JD Drew. They?ve done so because Kielty has good stats against Sabathia in the regular season. I think this is the wrong move because:
1. Those stats are from the regular season. In the postseason, players react differently.
2. Kielty?s numbers in the postseason for his career: 0-9 with three strikeouts and one walk.
3. Kielty?s 29 at bats versus Sabathia isn?t a large enough sample size to properly evaluate his performance
4. JD Drew makes 70 million dollars
5. JD Drew, if he?s any kind of player, will not be happy about this
6. If the Red Sox lose, in Sabathia?s next start who plays, Drew, Kielty, or bring back Wily Mo?
7. The Red Sox lose the switch hitting capability off the benchIf Kielty hits poorly and plays bad will the Red Sox admit their Bill James approach on this one stinks?
Honestly, my guess is that Francona’g going with Bobby Kielty because JD Drew is a lefty and
Kielty can bat from the right side against the lefty-throwing Sabathia, not because of Kielty’s regular season numbers. But that’s just me. Do any of Pags’ arguments hold water?
Number one might be true, but I’m not sure if that supports JD Drew or Bobby Kielty starting in right field. Number two is irrelevant, as Pags points out in number three. But the fact that Kielty should be expected to hit Sabathia at least as well as Drew isn’t based on a sample, it’s a basic platoon assumption. Number four is stupid. Really stupid. Number five shouldn’t matter. What, is JD Drew going to hit even worse than he already has this year because he’s pissed he’s not playing? Number six is stupid, too. Winning or losing probably won’t depend on the performance of Drew or Kielty. Even if Kielty is really good or really bad against CC, we’ve already decided four plate appearances is too small a sample size to base anything on. And if Francona really is confused about who to start in game four, I’m sure a coin flip will solve the problem. Number seven almost makes sense — yes, you’d like a switch hitter off the bench in order to gain the platoon advantage. But that’s the whole point of starting Kielty in the first place. CC will probably be relieved by Perez, who’s a lefty — advantage Kielty. Then comes Betancourt and Borowski, two righties. If Drew starts, you leave him in against those two. If Kielty starts, you could leave him in or pinch hit Drew, who would have the platoon advantage.
Seriously, this guy runs a scouting company that’s hired by real baseball teams? Here’s hoping the group has some tricks they don’t share on the blog.
Popularity: 6% [?]
Share This
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
October 11th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
No … come on, Sky! I tried to stop visiting that place. It’s funny how it was a “Bill James Move” to sign Drew and a “Bill James Move” to sit him here in the playoffs. blah … they just continue to bait statheads or so it seems (at least from just reading the part you quoted).