The AL MVP will be announced later today, so it seems like a good time to present my MVP ballot. Yes, I’ve done this before, but I found a small error in my calculations and I’ve incorporated an additional set of fielding data.
That’s not to say the rankings are now perfect. They definitely aren’t. I could continue to tweak constants such as positional adjustments. I may find another small computational error. Or there may be sweeping improvements in defensive rankings (Justin, for one, has incorporated the Fans Scouting Report alongside the two metrics I averaged together).
With all that room for improvement, why do I bother to give “my” numbers any merit? Because they’re still better than most of the stuff out there. VORP has serious flaws with positional adjustments and replacement level. BPro’s fielding metric is awful. And Win Shares, well, I’m shocked anyone still pays them any attention. Those are just a few examples.
Regarding whether they’re “my” numbers or not, they’re not. I’m just following methods laid out by other people, mostly Patriot and Tangotiger. I’ll eventually get around to explaining the methodology, but it’s pretty similar to what Justin explains thoroughly in his series on valuation.
One caveat I will throw out there is that any set of values, including these, isn’t as precise as you’d desire. I’m displaying numbers rounded to the nearest run, but any difference under five runs is not meaningful. It would take a difference of ten runs for me to feel pretty confident that one player was more valuable than another, and there are still going to be times when larger differences are lying.
Ok, on to the 2007 AL MVP ballot. Only position players are included, because I don’t yet have a good system for pitchers. My guess is that CC Sabathia would fall somewhere between fifth and eighth. RAR is offensive runs above replacement. POS is the positional adjustment. FAA is fielding runs above average relative to position. TVAR is total runs above replacement, the overall rating. A full season of an average player (Coco Crisp or Michael Young, for example) would be worth about 20 runs. 10 runs is about the same as one win.
2007 AL MVP Ballot
10 - Victor Martinez (48 RAR 9 POS 0 FAA 58 TVAR)
VMart’s the first of two catchers to make the top ten. He should thank Eric Wedge for letting him play first base on his “days off”.
9 - Grady Sizemore (60 RAR 7 POS -3 FAA 63 TVAR)
Some people think his defense is a lot better than this. If so, he belongs in the top five.
8 - Vlad Guerrero (75 RAR -5 POS -6 FAA 64 TVAR)
Talk about an overhyped MVP candidate. I think Vlad’s support just comes from the fact that he’s the best player on the Angels, who were a playoff team. Maybe his past ten years of domination come into play, too.
7 - David Ortiz (81 RAR -13 POS -1 FAA 67 TVAR)
Yes, he’s a monster offensively. He would also be a monster defensively, which is why the positional penalty for DHs is so high. That being said, Big Papi’s 2007 season is being underrated by many people, which is too bad.
6 - Jorge Posada (62 RAR 8 POS -2 FAA 68 TVAR)
Again, I probably should be giving catchers a bit more of a positional bonus, but a few runs in these rankings isn’t very significant.
5 - Carlos Pena (75 RAR -8 POS 3 FAA 70 TVAR)
Pena’s definitely the biggest surprise on the ballot. In the past couple years he’s been released by the Tigers, Yankees, and Red Sox. You think any of those teams aren’t kicking themselves?
4 - Ichiro Suzuki (59 RAR 6 POS 13 FAA 79 TVAR)
Some people claim Ichiro’s overrated as a hitter and some people claim he’s a legit MVP candidate. They’re all right.
3 - Magglio Ordonez (86 RAR -4 POS 3 FAA 84 TVAR)
He’s ARod’s strongest competition with the bat, but it’s just not close enough. That’s not to say we shouldn’t also be celebrating Maggs’ season.
2 - Curtis Granderson (65 RAR 6 POS 21 FAA 92 TVAR)
He had a very good offensive year, plays center field, and plays center field extremely well. Granderson’s the ideal all-around player, unless you include the ability to hit lefties in the discussion.
1 - Alex Rogriguez (100 RAR -1 POS -2 FAA 97 TVAR)
ARod should definitely be an unanimous MVP pick. Sure, Granderson’s close, but if you think anyone’s going to put ARod second in favor of him, you’re crazy. Any non-ARod votes will be for Ordonez or perhaps David Ortiz. And both of those choices are even more absurd.
Here’s the rest of the top twenty-five, with ties:
Player/TM RAR POS FAA TVAR Polanco,PlacidoDET 46 0 6 52 Roberts,BrianBAL 46 0 2 48 Rios,AlexITOR 43 -4 5 44 Ellis,MarkOAK 23 0 20 42 Cano,RobinsonNYA 34 0 7 42 Guillen,CarlosDET 43 3 -4 41 Thome,JimCHA 51 -11 0 40 Hunter,ToriiMIN 36 6 -3 40 Swisher,NickTOAK 41 -2 -1 38 Figgins,ChoneLAA 40 -1 -1 38 Crawford,CarlTB 34 -5 8 37 Kotchman,CaseyLAA 31 -7 13 37 Cust,JackOAK 43 -3 -4 36 Upton,B.J.TB 38 3 -6 35 Lowell,MikeBOS 37 -1 -1 35 Kinsler,IanMTEX 29 0 6 35 Matsui,HidekiNYA 44 -5 -5 35 Mauer,JoeMIN 28 7 0 35
Want to peruse the top twenty-five players at every position? Go for it:
1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | CA | LF | CF | RF
Popularity: 11% [?]
Share This
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.