skyking162

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I’m still in 2007 mode, not quite ready for the 2008 hot stove season. Therefore, I’m going to run a series of posts reviewing the best players at each position in 2007, taking into account both offense and defense. Here’s a little background information about the methodology:

• Players are listed at the position they played the most, but get credit for their production at all positions.
• RAR is offensive runs above replacement, including events like SBs and GIDPs. It is most definitely park-adjusted.
• FAA is fielding runs above average at that position. Fielding runs are an average of Rally’s STATS system and Justin’s BIS system.
• TVAR is total value above replacement, the number used to actually rank the players. This represents the total number of runs a player created on offense or prevented on defense above a scrub alternative. It’s not simply RAR + FAA, because there’s also a positional adjustment involved (being an average-fielding center fielder is more valuable than an average-fielding first baseman). +20 runs is about league average over a full season. +40 is borderline all-star. ARod was +100 in 2007.
• wOBA is a rate stat and more attractive cousin to OPS. It’s presented on the on-base percentage scale, meaning .330 is about average, .380 is very good, and .430 is approaching Ted Williams territory. It is park-adjusted.

Let’s kick off the first basemen with a list of the players ranked 11th through 25th before counting down the top ten:

Player/TM		RAR	FAA	TVAR	wOBA
Teixeira,MarkTEX	31	3	30	.366
Teixeira,MarkATL	29	1	27	.424
Morneau,JustinMIN	39	-2	26	.343
Stairs,MattTOR		31	-3	24	.373
Loney,JamesALAN		30	-4	21	.383
LaRoche,AdamPIT		25	4	19	.340
Hatteberg,ScottCIN	27	-3	18	.364
Young,DmitriWAS		35	-10	18	.374
Garko,RyanFCLE		31	-5	17	.365
Konerko,PaulCHA		30	-4	16	.340
Phelps,JoshPIT		14	2	15	.470
Millar,KevinBAL		24	-3	13	.346
Ward,DaryleCHN		12	2	13	.361
Wilkerson,BradTEX	17	1	13	.328
Delgado,CarlosNYN	23	-3	11	.333

If you combine Mark Teixeira’s stints with the Rangers and Braves, there are only two guys clearly more valuable. Josh Phelps finished ahead of both Andy Phillips and Doug M., making you wonder if New York cut the wrong guy. Matt Stairs’ recent deal with the Blue Jays was a steal for them considering he’s an above-average player ($1.5 million per season for 2008-09.)

2007’s Top Ten First Basemen

10 - Kevin Youkilis (34 RAR, 7 FAA, 33 TVAR, .364 wOBA)
Youk achieved top ten status with his discerning batting eye and third baseman’s glove, an atypical approach for a position more known for .600 slugging percentages. This is the level of production every team should be hoping to get from a first baseman without having to pay top dollar.

9 - Derrek Lee (46 RAR, -1 FAA, 36 TVAR, .376 wOBA)
Derrek Lee’s career went from “full of potential” to “NL MVP” to “recovering ex-star” more quickly than most. He found his bat again in 2007, but his gold glove was surprisingly MIA.

8 - Lance Berkman (49 RAR, -4 FAA, 37 TVAR, .373 wOBA)
Somewhere in Houston a public employee is filtering out the good stuff from the water. Did the whole team forget how to hit during the first half? Berkman rebounded in a huge way after the break, slugging .580 (versus .450 beforehand).

7 - Casey Kotchman (31 RAR, 13 FAA, 37 TVAR, .358 wOBA)
Here’s a guy that flew under my radar the whole season, probably because he was the worst hitter to make the top ten. Kotchman’s glove is top notch, something to remember when handing out accolades to the Angel pitchers.

6 - Adrian Gonzalez (55 RAR, 2 FAA, 47 TVAR, .368 wOBA)
I read all the time about how good a hitter Gonzalez is, and that his numbers would be better outside of PETCO. But nobody ever makes mention of what those numbers might look like. Here you go — AGone was only 10 runs worse than Ryan Howard with the stick in 2007, and his equal overall.

5 - Ryan Howard (64 RAR, -8 FAA, 47 TVAR, .365 wOBA)
I hate to go negative, but the first thing that pops to mind about Howard is how overrated he was in 2007. Sure, the power was there, but a decreased average led to significantly more outs. When talking about the Phillies’ Big Three, it should be Utley, Rollins, and Rowand. At least people aren’t obsessed with Howard’s 200 strikeouts.

4 - Prince Fielder (74 RAR, -9 FAA, 56 TVAR, .364 wOBA)
For the second time in two years, a young NL first baseman crushed 50 homeruns. Prince didn’t surpass his father’s career best, but something tells me the younger Fielder’s portfolio will eventually be a way more impressive.

3 - Todd Helton (53 RAR, 15 FAA, 59 TVAR, .366 wOBA)
Ahh, a blast from the past. Helton can field, take a walk, hit for average, and crank out those doubles. The only thing missing from his glory days are the 40+ homeruns.

2 - Carlos Pena (75 RAR, 3 FAA, 70 TVAR, .421 wOBA)
If you allow a little interpretation of Scott Borus’ comments, Pena was most definitely one of the top hitters in the majors. His 2007 performance would have been worth $28 million as a free agent, and while he’s likely to regress a bit next year, nothing in his peripherals screams fluke season.

1 - Albert Pujols (73 RAR, 23 FAA, 87 TVAR, .398 wOBA)
How great is Albert Pujols that in his worst professional season he was still the best first baseman in the majors. Maybe his bat took a step back because he spent so much time working on his defense? And if a “step back” means he’s still a top-level hitter, yikes.

How about the worst first basemen of 2007 — those that played poorly, yet enough to really hurt their teams? Here’s the bottom five:

Player/TM		RAR	FAA	TVAR	wOBA
Hinske,EricBOS		1	-6	-8	.301
Quinlan,RobbLAA		-1	-5	-8	.285
Baker,JeffGCOL		-6	-1	-9	.260
Fick,RobertWAS		-6	-6	-15	.275
Sexson,RichieSEA	5	-12	-15	.306

Links to entire series, as they’re published:
1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA

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This entry was posted on Monday, November 5th, 2007 at 5:00 am and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.