Who were the best of best in 2007? Here are the second basemen.
1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA
A quick review of the stats presented: RAR is offensive runs above replacement, FAA is fielding runs compared to positional average, TVAR is total value (the important one), and wOBA is a rate stat measuring offensive performance on the OBP scale. For more complete explanations, check out the original article.
2007’s Top Ten Second Basemen
10 - Kelly Johnson (36 RAR, - FAA, 28 TVAR, .362 wOBA)
Here’s a guy I know nothing about, although apparently I should. He’s one of the reasons Atlanta quietly posted the best run differential in the NL East this year.
9 - Jeff Kent (34 RAR, -3 FAA, 31 TVAR, .368 wOBA)
He’s old, he’s annoying, but he can still play baseball. There have been attempts to move Kent away from second base, but considering his fielding was basically average this year, there’s no need for that yet, even as he enters his age 40 season.
8 - Aaron Hill (18 RAR, 13 FAA, 31 TVAR, .328 wOBA)
It’s strange to think that the eighth-best second baseman was barely an average hitter, but thanks to a weak positional crop and Hill’s excellent glove, that’s what we’ve got. JP Ricciardi is one GM who obviously understands the value of fielding.
7 - Brandon Phillips (24 RAR, 8 FAA, 32 TVAR, .341 wOBA)
Some prospects just take longer to hit their stride. Phillips came up through the Expos’ farm system, then struggled with Cleveland for a few year before being shipped off to Cincinnati. After all that, 2007 was only his age 26 season. Reds fans love him and for good reason.
6 - Ian Kinsler (29 RAR, 6 FAA, 35 TVAR, .341 wOBA)
Why does it seem like most second basemen are solid all around players? Maybe GMs and managers have that same stereotype in their heads or maybe I’m just imagining things. Either way, as the Rangers continue to look for a center fielder and starting rotation, they won’t be worried about second base.
5 - Robinson Cano (34 RAR, 7 FAA, 42 TVAR, .351 wOBA)
What is it with the Yankees and quality, hacktastic second basemen? Cano’s no Soriano with the bat, but he was just as valuable in 2007.
4 - Mark Ellis (23 RAR, 20 FAA, 42 TVAR, .341wOBA)
Here’s one that nobody would guess — Mark Ellis as a borderline all-star. He’s only making $5 million next year, but that represents a decent raise from 2006-2007.
3 - Brian Roberts (46 RAR, 2 FAA, 48 TVAR, .363 wOBA)
If I were an Orioles fan, Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard would be my two favorite players, mostly because they’re the only real choices. Thankfully I’m not an Orioles fan.
2 - Placido Polanco (46 RAR, 6 FAA, 52 TVAR, .370 wOBA)
Surprisingly, Polanco rates as only half a win above average in the field. Sure, he doesn’t make errors, but it looks like he’s lost some range. He doesn’t get enough credit for his bat, however.
1 - Chase Utley (61 RAR, 21 FAA, 81 TVAR, .412 wOBA)
Yes, Mr. Utley missed a month to injury. But even with that handicap he still rated as the best-hitting and best-fielding second baseman in the league. He’s definitely a top-five NL MVP candidate and the best player on the Phillies in 2007.
Here are the guys who finished in spots 11 through 25:
Player/TM RAR FAA TVAR wOBA Pedroia,DustinLBOS 28 0 28 .353 DeRosa,MarkCHN 17 11 27 .335 Hudson,OrlandoARI 21 5 27 .342 Uggla,DanCFLA 31 -10 21 .347 Weeks,RickieMIL 30 -9 21 .357 Matsui,KazCOL 13 8 21 .317 Sanchez,FreddyPIT 25 -6 18 .336 Belliard,RonnieWAS 18 -1 17 .332 Grudzielanek,MarkKC 16 0 16 .328 Kendrick,HowieLAA 12 4 16 .336 Easley,DamionNYN 11 0 11 .359 Cabrera,AsdrubalCLE 6 4 10 .329 Iguchi,TadahitoPHI 8 2 10 .350 Blum,GeoffSD 5 3 8 .303 Velandia,JorgeTB 6 2 8 .409
For all the hoopla surrounding Kaz Matsui during the 2007 playoffs, he’s pretty average. There are a number of young guys on the list who could be considered disappointments: Freddy Sanchez, Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick, and Dan Uggla. Mark DeRosa was definitely underrated. Going forward, I’d like to have Dustin Pedroia, Tadahito Iguchi, and Asdrubal Cabrera, whom Tim McCarver told me is the first player named Asdrubal to ever play in the majors. Thanks, Tim.
Finally how about the worst two-baggers of 2007 — those that played poorly, yet enough to really hurt their teams? Here’s the bottom five:
Player/TM RAR FAA TVAR wOBA Martinez,RamonELAN -7 -4 -11 .219 Biggio,CraigHOU -3 -9 -12 .283 Durham,RaySF -5 -9 -14 .272 Casilla,AlexiMIN -9 -7 -16 .236 Barfield,JoshLCLE -10 -6 -16 .265
Oh, Craig Biggio. In the immortal words of Bill James, “pass”. Alexi Casilla is being billed as the next Luis Castillo — he definitely not there yet. The Indians gave Josh Barfield nearly all season to turn things around, but eventually had to turn to Asdrubal Cabrera, a 21-year old who out-hit and out-fielded Barfield. I think I know who’s getting first crack at the job in 2008.
The rest of the top players by position:
1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
November 6th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
That’s interesting–I have Phillips at 33 RAR on offense and 9 RAA on defense (FSR pulls him up a little bit). I may pull up my spreadsheet tonight to compare numbers here.. I’m not using custom team linear weights (instead I’m just using custom league linear weights), but otherwise our methods are more or less the same (I think).
Are you using Tango’s base runs coefficients to produce the linear weights? I find that those tend to underestimate run production a little bit when I plug them into THT stats, probably because we don’t have access to things like RBOE’s. I’m using slightly larger coefficients that I’ve forced to match ‘04-’07 NL production. Maybe that’s where the difference lies.
-j
November 6th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
After talking with JinAZ, we figured out the difference is likely due to Phillips’ 26 (yes, 26) GIDPs. At about -.32 runs each, that’s 8.3 total runs penalized against the Reds’ second baseman.
And fyi, I used the most complicated BaseRuns formula on Patriot’s site, which does not include ROE (not that I have a data source with ROE, anyway) and does include Ks, SHs, SFs, SB/CS, and all the basics.
November 27th, 2007 at 3:58 am
Really good and really interesting post. I expect (and other readers maybe :)) new useful posts from you!
Good luck and successes in blogging!
March 18th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
where’s alex cora on worst?