skyking162

Here are some quick thoughts from the past week:

• The Rays-Twins trade was spectacular and fair. First of all, you have to admire the two general managers for pulling it off. Staying with the status quo is always safer than making a move. The public comes down harder on poor trades than it praises the good ones. It’s unlikely that Garza and Young will turn out to be of equal value, and the “losing” organization will go down in infamy. These organizations put smart decisions ahead of public perception.

  On the talent front, Matt Garza and Delmon Young are both high-ceiling players with a lot of risk — Garza because he’s a pitcher, and Young because he’s all tools. My initial reaction was to prefer Garza because Young’s 2007 was really bad. His batting average was MLB-ready, but didn’t take walks and didn’t hit for power. Plus, he’s not that good of a baserunner and he played right field poorly. That being said, he was only 21. 21 year-olds belong in AA and Young’s already shown that AA isn’t a challenge. 2007 wasn’t encouraging for Young, but it’s quite likely it will be a blip on the radar in a few years.

  If Garza and Young can be considered a draw, the rest of the deal favors the Rays. Jason Bartlett is at least a full win better than Brendan Harris thanks to his defense. And I think Bartlett has some room to grow as a hitter. The Pridie and Morlan aspect is pretty insignificant, although Morlan’s more likely to provide any real MLB value.

  I hate the term win-win, but by trading from a strength, both teams have removed traffic jams and given starting jobs to players they already had hanging around. The Rays now have a corner outfield spot for some combination of Elijah Dukes, Roccol Baldelli, and any minor leaguers that make their case. Is it a good idea to count on any one of those solutions? No, but chances are that something will work out. As for the Twins, they can move another pitching prospect into the rotation. Yes, they’ll also be losing Johan Santana, but every proposed trade has them acquiring at least one pitcher in return. Even if they keep Santana, they’ll have the same “problem” next off-season.

  Both teams gave up a lot of cheap talent, but both teams got just as much in return. And by filling difficult holes and opening up easily-pluggable holes, both teams made themselves better for 2007 and beyond.

• It’s pretty much assumed ARod will be back with the Yankees for about $30 million per season. Free agents are grossly overpaid as a general rule, but if you’re going to spend $30 million dollars on the free agent market, giving it all to ARod is actually a bit of a deal. He’s that good. And if you have a $200 million payroll, you need to invest in some top notch talent. I don’t like that the Yankees had to commit to a ten year deal, but otherwise it’s a better decision than what the Angels decided about Torii Hunter.
• Two huge names are still available in trade: Johan Santana and Miguel Cabrera. The Twins and Marlins are absolutely making the right move in trading them. The only reason they haven’t yet pulled the trigger is that they think teams will increase the value of the packages offered.

  Neither team can afford to sign their guy long-term (nor should they want to at the price demanded.) So what are they really giving up? Santana could play one more year in Minnesota for about $15 million (he made $13 million last season). Let’s say he’s a seven-win pitcher. That means he’s worth $28 million on the free agent market and the Twins are getting a $13 million “deal”. If they trade Johan to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Lowrie, and Masterson, they can count on at least two wins in 2007 (two from Crisp and two from Lester). That’s about two wins behind Santana, but for only about $7 million. Spending the $8 million difference on a free agent should buy two more wins. So the trade could be seen as almost exactly a wash in 2007 — the Twins will be one win worse. But here’s the kicker — the Twins don’t have those players for just 2007, unlike Santana. All four will continue to be cheap and they’ll continue to improve. You could do the same sort of analysis for Miguel Cabrera. They’re both fantastic players in a vacuum, but their value to a team is greatly dependent on both contract dollars and contract length. To the Twins and Marlins, the return on a trade is far greater than what they own right now.

• Tadahito Iguchi is a totally underrated free agent. He’s at least league-average and will make significantly less than the going rate for that status (about $8 million). Although, maybe George Mitchell has some dirt on him.
• Mike Cameron is also underrated, especially due to his 25-game suspension. He’s still an above-average center fielder and his offensive talents were significantly masked by PETCO Park. How about Minnesota as a destination on a 3/$30 million deal? He’s basically Torii Hunter for a lot less.
• If you insist on defining MVP with strong flavor of team-performance and dramatic storylines, then fine. Go for it. But it’s no longer an individual award. Jimmy Rollins didn’t win the MVP this year. Jimmy Rollins teamed with Philadelphia, people infatuated with 20-20-20-20, and the collapse by Mets pitchers to win the award. Why not call it “Best Storyline” of the season and give every party involved a miniature version of the trophy and 10 seconds to thank their parents.

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This entry was posted on Thursday, November 29th, 2007 at 4:48 pm and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.