I’ve been saving up the links for a few weeks now, so make sure you have plenty of coffee for the link-fest ahead.
Cubs f/x quotes a NY Times story that makes a great point about the playoffs’ status as a crapshoot. It’s true, but so is the regular season. A 95-win team wins about one more game per week than a 65-win team. In the post-season, one win per week is barely meaningful and we’re talking about the best team and the worst team, let alone two teams with similar records.
24 more stories like this one can be found here:
During a contract holdout with Oakland in the early 1990s, Henderson said, “If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego.”
Did you notice that the FOX pitch tracker graphic during the World Series showed almost every close pitch as a ball? That’s because the strike zone rectangle showed the rule book definition, not what’s actually been called for the last billion years. The Mockingbird makes the same point with nice pictures and anecdotes. (Update: As Mockingbird points out in the comments, FOX’s strike zone was actually 2-3 inches narrower than the rulebook definition. And they showed that graphic all the time. Nice job, guys.)
River Avenue Blues has the most interesting story about Joe Girardi from the past week, about the Northwestern weight room:
In the football weight room, where all athletes worked out … there are lists of weightlifting records, and the only non-football player ANYWHERE was in the squat, where Girardi was the all-time king.
When free agents are signed by a new team, the old team receives draft picks based on the quality of the player. Here’s how Elias determines those A/B/C rankings. Some stupid stuff there, including lumping center fielders in with corner outfielders, first basemen and DH’s — none of which are judged by any fielding stats. But RBIs matter, of course.
If you have 45 minutes to spare and want to watch a video about the state of fielding metrics and the details of one of the most advanced ones out there (SAFE), it’s your lucky day.
From Results Disoriented, a cool baseball blog bashing 20/20 hindsight, comes this stat of the week (xFIP is like ERA with fielding “removed” and homeruns normalized based on fly-ball rate.)
Gagne with Texas, 2007: 2.16 ERA, 4.19 xFIP
Gagne with Boston, 2007: 6.75 ERA, 4.21 xFIP
This week’s entry into the non-baseball competition (hmm, suddenly I’m implying there’s a competition going on) is a video about resonance windmills, which use much less space than traditional fan-style windmills.
Somewhere in this premium article (it was linked to from another BPro article), Nate Silver points out that first round draft picks are worth about $12 million in value to the drafting team. Sure makes them seem a lot more important, huh?
Surprisingly, Curt Schilling might have the best take on the Joe Torre “firing”:
The Red Sox in me is happy Joe Torre is no longer in charge in NY. The person in me wonders how does a guy who obviously has the respect and loyalty of his entire roster, a guy who’s taken his team to 12 straight post seasons, a guy who exudes class and respect, how does he, in the midst of what might have been his most challenging and defining season and post season, not only have to manage his team in a best of 5 win or go home series, but also answer a billion questions about being basically told ‘win or you’re out’? How did it come to that? I have never had a chance to get to know Mr Torre beyond handshakes of congratulations or hellos, but I have never heard a player on his team utter anything but respect for the guy. Much like Boston, managing a 175m+ roster of super star players, in that market, with a hack to writer ratio bordering on 100-1, how does he basically win pretty much every year, get to the post season and get an ultimatum at THAT point in the season?
Schilling also shared a recruiting letter from Theo Epstein and Larry Lucchino from the 2003 off-season. It’s great insight into a first-class organization pursuing a first-class pitcher.
Remember the whole fiasco with productive outs a few years ago? Well, here’s the same thing, but done with a win-expectancy framework: context neutral wins above expectation on outs hit in play per relevant plate appearance. Who were the best players at creating runs with their outs in 2007? Jody Gathright, Jeremy Hermedia, Dave Ross, So Taguchi, and Craig Wilson.
Image of the week: cubic watermelons grown in Japan. Why, because they’re easier to store than round ones. Duh.
Funny thought: what if ARod was more like Manny? Does not treating baseball as a life and death situation make Manny a better player?
Not sure how I missed this, but Tango has a handy-dandy chart showing the expected free agent deals for various contract lengths and player abilities. He assumes $4 million dollars per marginal win, a 10% salary inflation rate per year, and a skill decrease of .5 wins per seasons (because almost all free agents are in their decline phase).
The 2007 Fans Scouting Report is finished. You can view players grouped by teams or position, and clicking each player will bring up a list of most similar fielders. For example, here’s Akinori Iwamura’s card, showing he compares favorably to two slick-fielding middle-infielders, Orlando Hudson and Jack Wilson. The move to second base should negate his only weakness — a weak throwing arm.
Are you fed up with Scott Borus? Here’s a list of his clients, thanks to MLB Trade Rumors.
Why would Mike Cameron take a stimulant? To counter the effects of alcohol, naturally.
I’ve always wondered why teams have a fixed payroll. Profits depend both on mimizing costs and maximizing revenues. Revenue strongly correlates with how good a team is, which can be improved by upping the payroll. Nate Silver comments on the other strategy: instead of a fixed payroll and shooting for the most wins, have a fixed wins goal and work to minimize spending while getting there. Why not fix revenue instead of costs? Where is each team’s profit “sweet spot”?
Tracy Ringolsby reports that Tim Lincecum might be trade bait, as Brian Sabean is looking to add a quality bat. I assume there’s also a need for youth, or else letting Bonds walk was a mistake. So what would teams need to give up for Lincecum? Would these deals work? To the Rays for Crawford. To the Yankees for Melky and Betemit? To the Giants for Matt Kemp? To the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera?
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
November 3rd, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Hey thanks for the link to the professional hitting article.
November 3rd, 2007 at 12:56 pm
Of course, PC. I have a soft spot for hi-tech analyses of trivial ideas.
November 3rd, 2007 at 3:44 pm
A minor quibble…in that article I’m actually arguing that the pitchtracker strike zone is set much narrower than even the rulebook one. It wouldn’t have been so bad if it was just literally interpreting it, but instead it was terrrrible, to the tune of another 2-3 inches.
November 4th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Thanks, Mock. It had been a couple weeks since I read your article. I added a note in my post.
November 4th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
I think it’d take more than melky and betemit to get Lincecum. They’re not gonna just give him away, he’s the future ace of the team. Not sure how familiar you are with the Yankees system, but they’d probably have to give Melky and possibly Horne, Austin Jackson, or another prospect. If the Giants want only a good hitter and no prospects, it would probably take Cano.
November 4th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
Dan, it definitely should take more than Melky and Betemit to get Lincecum, but Sabean’s a big wild card. Would the Yankees trade Cano for Lincecum? Cano’s a 4-win player. Is the high-risk, high-reward of Lincecum worth that? Very interesting.