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Rick Ankiel pulled a Shane Spencer-like debut in 2007, except it was a couple months long and he had a history of Knoblauch-itis. Is Ankiel really this good of a hitter? How many homeruns will he hit in 2008?
Feel free to discuss Ankiel’s future in the comments. Popularity: 5% [?] Share ThisFurther Reading -- Similar Posts
2 Responses to “Poll: Projecting Rick Ankiel’s 2008”
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Player FAA RARP VALUE wOBA Rodriguez, Alex -2 99 97 .435 Granderson, Curt 21 71 92 .381 Wright, David 15 74 89 .409 Pujols, Albert 23 64 87 .404 Ordonez, Magglio 3 82 84 .431 Utley, Chase 21 61 81 .416 Jones, Chipper 10 70 80 .425 Suzuki, Ichiro 13 66 79 .354 Beltran, Carlos 14 56 70 .361 Posada, Jorge 70 70 .412 Pena, Carlos 3 67 70 .421
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
The next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing. ~Allison Kraus
November 9th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
Dude, WHERE ARE YOU POSTING THESE FROM? oh my god i am so confused.
November 9th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Ankiel’s homerun/FB ratio last year was over 21%. Only 4 BA-qualifiers were over 20%, including A-Rod, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena and Jim Thome (who were all over 25%). So unless we assume he is one of baseball’s absolute elite homerun hitters, we should project a lower rate. So let’s assume (optimistically) that he can bunch in Vlad, Ordonez, Justin Morneau and Travis Hafner territory. That puts him around 16%.
Now it’s a matter of playing time coupled with his other peripherals. His GB rate was around 45%, and his LD rate around 15%. That leaves 40% balls hit in the air, but he had about 13% IF/F rate. Let’s knock that down to 10% of the 40%, so he’s hitting 36% of BIP to the outfield in the air, with 16% of those going for a home run. His K:BB was more than 3:1. Assume a slight plate discipline improvement by having him strike out 20% of the time. Give him (again, optimistically) 600 plate appearances, with a .300 BABIP, and we have:
600PA
120 SO
40 BB
10HBP
146H
550AB
.265 BA
430 BIP incl HR
155 outfield flies
25 HR (plus 1 or 2 line-drive HR)
And there’s your answer :)
A combination of a mediocre contact rate coupled with a fairly high IF/FB% will hold down his overall power numbers. A lack of plate discipline will help him rack up more AB, so he’ll have plenty of chances to hit HR at least…