Comments on: Poll: Projecting Rick Ankiel’s 2008 http://skyking162.com/2007/11/poll-projecting-rick-ankiels-2008/ baseball with a hint of lime Fri, 30 Jul 2010 06:36:33 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3 By: James http://skyking162.com/2007/11/poll-projecting-rick-ankiels-2008/#comment-784 James Fri, 09 Nov 2007 20:46:10 +0000 http://skyking162.com/2007/11/poll-projecting-rick-ankiels-2008/#comment-784 Ankiel's homerun/FB ratio last year was over 21%. Only 4 BA-qualifiers were over 20%, including A-Rod, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena and Jim Thome (who were all over 25%). So unless we assume he is one of baseball's absolute elite homerun hitters, we should project a lower rate. So let's assume (optimistically) that he can bunch in Vlad, Ordonez, Justin Morneau and Travis Hafner territory. That puts him around 16%. Now it's a matter of playing time coupled with his other peripherals. His GB rate was around 45%, and his LD rate around 15%. That leaves 40% balls hit in the air, but he had about 13% IF/F rate. Let's knock that down to 10% of the 40%, so he's hitting 36% of BIP to the outfield in the air, with 16% of those going for a home run. His K:BB was more than 3:1. Assume a slight plate discipline improvement by having him strike out 20% of the time. Give him (again, optimistically) 600 plate appearances, with a .300 BABIP, and we have: 600PA 120 SO 40 BB 10HBP 146H 550AB .265 BA 430 BIP incl HR 155 outfield flies 25 HR (plus 1 or 2 line-drive HR) And there's your answer :) A combination of a mediocre contact rate coupled with a fairly high IF/FB% will hold down his overall power numbers. A lack of plate discipline will help him rack up more AB, so he'll have plenty of chances to hit HR at least... Ankiel’s homerun/FB ratio last year was over 21%. Only 4 BA-qualifiers were over 20%, including A-Rod, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena and Jim Thome (who were all over 25%). So unless we assume he is one of baseball’s absolute elite homerun hitters, we should project a lower rate. So let’s assume (optimistically) that he can bunch in Vlad, Ordonez, Justin Morneau and Travis Hafner territory. That puts him around 16%.

Now it’s a matter of playing time coupled with his other peripherals. His GB rate was around 45%, and his LD rate around 15%. That leaves 40% balls hit in the air, but he had about 13% IF/F rate. Let’s knock that down to 10% of the 40%, so he’s hitting 36% of BIP to the outfield in the air, with 16% of those going for a home run. His K:BB was more than 3:1. Assume a slight plate discipline improvement by having him strike out 20% of the time. Give him (again, optimistically) 600 plate appearances, with a .300 BABIP, and we have:

600PA
120 SO
40 BB
10HBP
146H
550AB
.265 BA
430 BIP incl HR
155 outfield flies
25 HR (plus 1 or 2 line-drive HR)

And there’s your answer :)

A combination of a mediocre contact rate coupled with a fairly high IF/FB% will hold down his overall power numbers. A lack of plate discipline will help him rack up more AB, so he’ll have plenty of chances to hit HR at least…

]]> By: Liz http://skyking162.com/2007/11/poll-projecting-rick-ankiels-2008/#comment-783 Liz Fri, 09 Nov 2007 20:16:01 +0000 http://skyking162.com/2007/11/poll-projecting-rick-ankiels-2008/#comment-783 Dude, WHERE ARE YOU POSTING THESE FROM? oh my god i am so confused. Dude, WHERE ARE YOU POSTING THESE FROM? oh my god i am so confused.

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