I’m sick of reading about how the Twins rotation will be awful once they trade Santana. Sure, they’re losing Carlos Silva and they traded Matt Garza. But they do have the deepest crop of pitching prospects and they’re bound to receive one of the best (either Philip Hughes or Clay Buchholtz) in return for Santana. Plus, if they do trade Santana, there will be a bunch of free money they could spend on another league-average starter. There are many teams out there wishing they could go into 2007 with this rotation:
Philip Hughes
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Boof Bonser
Glen Perkins
Francisco Liriano
Average Veteran Guy
Every single one of those pitchers can be expected to post a league-average 4.50 ERA, and one or two should have breakout seasons. No, there’s not a lot of experience and the chance of injury is greater than with older guys. But come on. That’s a solidly above-average rotation for peanuts. So shut up about it.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
December 1st, 2007 at 9:30 pm
I was just talking to my friend about Santana going to Boston. Personally, if I’m the Red Sox, there’s no way I’m giving up Buchholz and a couple of other good prospects for Santana. Sure, Santana is the better pitcher and he’s the safer bet (I guess). But you get a guy like Hughes or Buchholz for 6 years, with a few of those near the min., while you’re paying a guy like Santana ~20 million a year. Yea, I suppose that doesn’t matter as much for the Yanks and Red Sox, but even looking at it from a straight value perspective, I would guess that Hughes and Buchholz will be pretty close to Santana over the next 5-6 years.
So, if I’m the Twins, I’m liking how this is playing out. But they tell me I am not any of these teams ….
December 2nd, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Hughes and Buchholtz probably can’t be projected to have the same talent that Santana has — Johan’s just that good. They’re also more of an injury risk as young pitchers. But Santana’s getting relatively old, and from the research I see, pitchers at his age tend to lose 15% of their IPs each season.
If Santana’s a 7-win pitcher, I’d put Hughes and Buchholtz at about 4 wins. Tack on two extra players (each 2-3 wins) from either the Yankees or Red Sox, and it’s an even trade talent-wise. Except the young guys are a lot cheaper and would be under contract for a total of about 15 seasons instead of just one for Johan.
That being said, I don’t think it’s a bad move for the Yankees or Red Sox to sign Santana to a five year deal at $20 to $22 million per season. That’s going-rate for free agent pitchers, perhaps even a touch under FA value. Of course, free-agent dollars are a poor way to spend money, but when you’re willing to spend $150 to $200 million per season, you have to spend it somewhere and you there are a limited number of starting spots to spend it. The Yankees should be focused on giving their money to guys like ARod and Johan while trying as hard as possible to keep guys like Cano and Hughes. Melky’s trade-bait.
December 12th, 2007 at 11:51 pm
Don’t forget, when Liriano went down he had better numbers than Johan, to be fair he was behind in innings pitched, but his K/9, ERA, WHIP, were all better. That’s amazing. He was the best pitcher in the league during that stretch. Can he be that again? I don’t know, but if he is, or even 75% of what he was he’s still one of the best five pitchers in the league. It seems like everyone is willing to write him off. You have him listed sixth, like an after thought, believe me, Liriano is going to be the ace of this staff after Johan is gone, if he’s still the same pitcher. he should be, TJ surgery isn’t what it used to be. Hell people use it as a strategy now to improve. I just wish we could get to see those two pitch together for a whole a season. They were the best 1-2 punch, and if they could spend a good five years together they would certainly have one of the best pitching staffs of all time. Boof should break out soon, and like you said, their pitching is so deep it’s disgusting.
December 13th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
Good point about Liriano, nobody seems to be talking about him. Not even George Mitchell.