Beane vs. The White Sox, Again
Posted by: Sky in Baseball, tags: Athletics, Nick Swisher, trades, White SoxNick Swisher was just traded to the White Sox for two excellent pitching prospects (one who’s almost ready for the big leagues and one who’s a couple years away) and a mediocre outfield prospect. Who won the trade? I’m going to say that the White Sox received more total value, but the A’s made the smarter trade.
Nick Swisher is really good (four wins in ‘07) and has five years left on an extremely reasonable contract:
08:$3.5M
09:$5.3M
10:$6.75M
11:$9M,
12:$10.25M club option ($1M buyout)
Four wins on the free agent market costs about $18 million dollars. Over five years the White Sox will save about $55 million bucks ($90 million in value minus the $35 million in contract costs.)
The return on the two pitching prospects is quite risky — both could be aces or both could get injured. But I don’t think a #2 and a #4 starter is an unreasonable assumption. Through their third arbitration years, that’s maybe $40 million in savings above contract cost for the A’s.
So, it appears the White Sox are getting more for their money than the Athletics. However, neither team will compete for a couple years. The A’s are fully admitting they can’t compete with the Angels and are counting on a run in 2010 or 2011. The White Sox seem to think they have a shot the next couple years, but they really don’t — the fielders are awful, the studs are aging, and the pitching is no longer a strength. Neither team will make the playoffs with or without Nick Swisher, but only the Athletics realize that.
If we ignore the next two seasons, the picture is different. Swisher’s value in 2010, 2011, and 2012 is much less, because his salary is much higher. He’d cost $54 million on the free agent market and will cost the Sox $26 million, a savings of only $28 million. Compared to the $40 million in savings the A’s will get from the two prospect pitchers, that’s not going to cut it.
Swisher will help keep the White Sox above .500 for a few years, but won’t be enough to help them catch the Indians or Tigers. The A’s also won’t compete for a couple seasons, but when their farm system matures, they’ll be a playoff contender. Advantage, Oakland.
Popularity: 4% [?]
Share This
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:20 pm
The White Sox seem to think they have a shot the next couple years, but they really don’t — the fielders are awful, the studs are aging, and the pitching is no longer a strength.
I understand that in a division with a free-wheelin Tigers squad, and a uber-talented and young Indians team, it’s a tough road to a title, and the odds are that the Sox will fail, but there’s definitely a reasonable chance they can get lucky and find success. And with that in mind, you can’t worry about future budgets.
I guess I’m going with a “within range” theory of player acquisition.
That is, given your projected win total, if you’re 0.5 standard deviation (or whatever) away from the win total needed for a division title, you owe it to the fans to go for it. Of course, it would take some luck, but you have a chance to get there, the window is open. You gotta play to win if you know there’s a chance it could happen, even knowing that a painful rebuilding will be coming down the line. I haven’t looked at the numbers (you know I never do…), but I gotta think the Sox are at least that close.
I like the trade, from both sides.
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:46 pm
The other thing I think is that, as you note, the “window” is closing on the Sox.
And while I recognize that the “smart” play in a situation like this is to give in to the momentum, trade these “aging studs” for younger, cheaper alternatives and play for the future, the emotional side of sports wants to hold onto these guys and hope that they can squeeze out one more great year and get the team to the playoffs. (A Brett Favre/Packers story book kind of thing this year)
It’s much more “special” to fans to win a title with guys who’ve “been there” than it is with a new class of players. As much as I want the Mariners to eventually win a World Series and the future elation I expect with that, I know it won’t be the same if it happens without Ichiro and Felix.
(and understand, that I say this as a fan from a city who’s 3 major sport teams haven’t won a championship since the 70s)
January 4th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Interesting quotes about Kenny Williams making a huge push for Swisher, who the A’s weren’t really looking to trade: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024378.php
Frank, I agree that taking a risk to make one last push is a good idea. I just don’t know if the Sox are close enough. They were about a 70 win team in record and run differential last year. Should the Royals also be looking to make one big push next year? How high does your expected win total have to be to hope luck can get you over the top 25% of the time? My rough guess is more like 80-82 wins. You? Might be an interesting post idea.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
For the record, the line in #3 about the Royals was deliberately snarky, but the following questions were actual questions. It IS an interesting idea.