Comments on: Beane vs. The White Sox, Again

By: Sky

Sky — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 00:06:45 +0000

For the record, the line in #3 about the Royals was deliberately snarky, but the following questions were actual questions. It IS an interesting idea.

By: Sky

Sky — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 22:38:05 +0000

Interesting quotes about Kenny Williams making a huge push for Swisher, who the A’s weren’t really looking to trade: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024378.php

Frank, I agree that taking a risk to make one last push is a good idea. I just don’t know if the Sox are close enough. They were about a 70 win team in record and run differential last year. Should the Royals also be looking to make one big push next year? How high does your expected win total have to be to hope luck can get you over the top 25% of the time? My rough guess is more like 80-82 wins. You? Might be an interesting post idea.

By: Frank

Frank — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 00:46:47 +0000

The other thing I think is that, as you note, the “window” is closing on the Sox.
And while I recognize that the “smart” play in a situation like this is to give in to the momentum, trade these “aging studs” for younger, cheaper alternatives and play for the future, the emotional side of sports wants to hold onto these guys and hope that they can squeeze out one more great year and get the team to the playoffs. (A Brett Favre/Packers story book kind of thing this year)

It’s much more “special” to fans to win a title with guys who’ve “been there” than it is with a new class of players. As much as I want the Mariners to eventually win a World Series and the future elation I expect with that, I know it won’t be the same if it happens without Ichiro and Felix.

(and understand, that I say this as a fan from a city who’s 3 major sport teams haven’t won a championship since the 70s)

By: Frank

Frank — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 00:20:54 +0000

The White Sox seem to think they have a shot the next couple years, but they really don’t — the fielders are awful, the studs are aging, and the pitching is no longer a strength.

I understand that in a division with a free-wheelin Tigers squad, and a uber-talented and young Indians team, it’s a tough road to a title, and the odds are that the Sox will fail, but there’s definitely a reasonable chance they can get lucky and find success. And with that in mind, you can’t worry about future budgets.

I guess I’m going with a “within range” theory of player acquisition.
That is, given your projected win total, if you’re 0.5 standard deviation (or whatever) away from the win total needed for a division title, you owe it to the fans to go for it. Of course, it would take some luck, but you have a chance to get there, the window is open. You gotta play to win if you know there’s a chance it could happen, even knowing that a painful rebuilding will be coming down the line. I haven’t looked at the numbers (you know I never do…), but I gotta think the Sox are at least that close.

I like the trade, from both sides.