Bedard To Mariners Quick Hits
Posted by: Sky in Baseball, tags: Adam Jones, Erik Bedard, Mariners, Orioles, tradesIf you’re a Mariners’ fan, you’ve got to be excited about seeing Erik Bedard in your rotation. He’s one of my new favorite pitchers and probably one of the top ten starters in the majors. He’s definitely a better player than Adam Jones, but I’m not sure this trade makes Seattle that much better of a team over the next year or two, let alone once Bedard is eligible for free agency. USSMariner’s beaten this horse to death, but here are the bullet points:
- The Mariners will pay Bedard $4 million in 2008 and now will likely sign a Kenny Lofton/Brad Wilkerson type to play right field. That’s another $5 million or so. Think about what the team could have bought for $9 million if they’d kept Jones — Barry Bonds? Dump Sexson for someone who’s a good first basemen? Sign or trade for a league-average pitcher?
- Brandon Morrow’s not in the rotation. He’s the guy you refused to trade for Bedard and he’s not even going to be an important piece of the puzzle?
- George Sherrill is a good reliever. Sure, losing him is only a small loss, but small losses add up.
- The 2007 team wasn’t really an 88-win team, outperforming their Pythagorean record by quite a bit. It’s probably going to take more than Bedard to make the playoffs, but it seems as though Bavasi’s done with major tweaks. If you’re going to sell the farm, don’t half-ass it.
- Once 2010 arrives, you have to pay Bedard free agent money to keep him around. Free agents are already overpriced — there’s no advantage in also giving up players for a guy you’re going to overpay. Meanwhile, Jones will likely be an above-average player making not much money for three more years. And the other prospects may be contributing as well. In two years do you want Jones + prospects + big money free agent or just a big money free agent? Yes, that’s rhetorical.
- It’s unfair to expect Bedard’s 2007 ratios over 200+ innings. Sure, he took the next step last year, but players who have career seasons don’t tend to improve again the following year. And a pitcher with an injury history is no safe bet. In general, pitchers can be expected to lose 10% of their innings year over year. The M’s may get lucky with Bedard, but they could very well be unlucky. A reasonably positive expectation would be a 3.50 ERA over 180 IP not a 2.75 ERA over 200 IP as I’ve seen other places.
Adding Bedard makes the Mariners a few wins better this year and next. But over the next six or seven years, they’re probably netting 15 to 20 fewer wins. That trade-off is only worth it if you need the few wins to get over a hump. The 2008 Mariners, even with Bedard, are only within sight of the foothills of any playoff hump.
Popularity: 8% [?]
Share This
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Do you discount future success like you do future earnings in finance?
That is, is an Adam Jones win share in 2010 not worth as much as an AJ win share in 2008?
If that’s the case, with the volatility of player success, the discount rate has to be huge right?
I don’t know, just something I was thinking about this morning.
Also, to be clear, on the Brandon Morrow thing, I believe the O’s wanted Jones AND Morrow (instead of this package of Tillman and Sherrill). Which was soundly rejected. I don’t think they were going to do Morrow plus for Bedard (would you?)
Finally, more of a general “Do you know?” question than anything else… Your FA note on Bedard got me thinking, do free agents who resign with their teams generally do better than those who move to other cities? It seems like they do (for a variety of reasons), but that’s more annecdotal than anything. Have you seen anything that looks into this?
January 29th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Future success should get discounted, definitely. I like to think of it in terms of contribution regressing to the mean due to uncertainty in health and performance, not “future wins don’t matter as much”. I think it’s overkill to consider both, but I haven’t thought much about the second. Maybe I should, though. Good question.
I have no idea what type of player Morrow is or will be– I trust you on that one.
No idea on your last question, although it’s also a good one. Some would argue that resigning a player before free agency removes any “contract year” motivation, but I’m not a big believer in that anyways.
By the way, aren’t you glad you’re not an Orioles’ fan?
January 29th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
I don’t know…
I mean, if they get Jones here and get whatever they get from Chi for Roberts (Pie, Pagan, a pitcher?), is there any difference between them and the A’s from a talent perspective? (fully expecting rant from Tom here…)
I mean, yeah, having the douchiest owner in MLB sucks, and Andy MacPhail is no Billy Beane, but still… is there much difference in the talent bases of the A’s and Orioles going into 2008?
January 29th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Honestly, I don’t care what the Orioles’ are given to start with. Angelos has more than shown he can’t do anything with it. This team should be where the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and Angels are.
I want to write a full post on this eventually, but I’m excited to see what Beane has in store for his 2008 and 2009 teams. I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams finish at .500.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
I’m not going to rant, Frank, but I do think the A’s are in a lot better shape than the O’s. They have fully committed to rebuilding and restocking their farm system this year, and the 2008 team is not going to win a lot of games as a result. I would take a bet with Sky about them being .500 this year if he wants. The O’s management doesn’t seem to have any clear plan, and aside from Markakis (and Jones?) I don’t think they have much that anyone’s excited about. I’m not an expert on their farm system, though. I am glad Beane is not doing it half-assed - if you’re going to rebuild, do it all the way. Of the players we’ve added this off-season (Gio, DLS, CarGo, Sweeney, Devine) I fully expect at least one of them to be come a star, hopefully 2 or 3.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
The O’s have done a pretty good job of restocking the cupboard themselves for whatever happens in the future. They got a decent (if not star studded) haul from the Astros for a rapidly aging Tejada. And they’re gonna get more if the Jones deal goes through from the Cubs, right?
Luke Scott, Markakis and Jones make a OF to build on.
Danny Cabrera, Loewen, J. Gut, and Penn strike me as the same kind of talent Detroit had 4 years ago when they were “rebuilding” their starting rotation. (although 3 of those guys are “Frank” guys so I may not have an objective view on their actual talent level)
And Chris Ray has become a stud.
Obviously they have some contract mistakes (the entire bullpen), but they can afford to eat those alot more easily than the A’s can.
I’m playing a bit of devil’s advocate here, but the young talent here isn’t substantially less that the A’s, is it? I dare say the O’s plan is coming together as successfully, maybe more successfully that the A’s…
But yeah, to Sky’s point, Angelos will fuck it up.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Also, I know everyone else (No one actually calls him CarGo do they?), but who is DLS?
February 2nd, 2008 at 12:24 am
According to Athletics Nation, Carlos Gonzales already has the “CarGo” nickname with fans. DLS is Fautino De Los Santos, the other guy in the Swisher deal from Chicago. Super young (19?) but supposedly has lights-out stuff, just no experience at any level above A, I think.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:21 am
We all have ability to write like this. The difference is how we use it. most of us are stuck in our shells and dont stick our necks out far enough to expose our thoughts like this. You’re one of the brave enough to try and make a difference.