Blyleven and Morris, Part 97
Posted by: Sky in Baseball, tags: Bert Blyleven, hall of fame, Jack MorrisI’ve been looking at some historical pitching performances and I found it helpful to translate those stats into the modern run scoring environment. I mean, a 2.50 ERA sounds really really good, but it’s less impressive when the league ERA was 3.50. So, I took ERA+ (which adjusts ERA for ballpark and league scoring) and converted it to an ERA in today’s game (league-average 4.50 ERA). I then calculated runs saved compared to replacement level (using a 5.75 ERA.)
Here are the best pitchers of the 1980s:
Pitcher Runs ERA* IP Dave Stieb 571 3.54 2328.2 Jack Morris 440 4.13 2443.2 Bob Welch 409 3.98 2082.1 Charlie Hough 408 4.02 2121.2 Bert Blyleven 408 3.98 2078.1 Fernando Valenz 404 4.05 2144.2 Nolan Ryan 395 4.05 2094 John Tudor 382 3.63 1622.2 Orel Hershiser 379 3.41 1457 Roger Clemens 359 3.24 1284.2
Dave Stieb is the runaway winner, Jack Morris comes in second and Blyleven’s in the third place pack. Notice that Roger Clemens squeaks in tenth even though he pitched only four full seasons and two half seasons in the 80s.
Now, how about the best pitchers of the 1970s:
Pitcher Runs ERA* IP Jim Palmer 752 3.28 2745 Tom Seaver 733 3.26 2652.1 Gaylord Perry 694 3.60 2905 Bert Blyleven 667 3.46 2624.2 Phil Niekro 660 3.69 2881 Steve Carlton 591 3.81 2747 Fergie Jenkins 572 3.85 2706.2 Don Sutton 512 3.95 2557.1 Nolan Ryan 484 3.98 2465 Vida Blue 471 3.98 2398.2
Look at number four on that list — Bert Blyleven. This guy was the third most valuable pitcher of the 1980s and the fourth most valuable pitcher of the 1970s. I’ll let you decide how impressive that is.
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One more thing on the Jack Morris/Bert Blyleven debate. It’s been discussed in many other places, but blows my mind every time I see it. If you adjust both pitchers’ win totals to neutralize the effect of their teams’ offenses (Morris got way more run support than Blyleven, something outside their control), you see this happen:
Jack Morris drops to 224 wins from 259.
Bert Blyleven jumps to 325 wins from 287.
That’s right, with similar run support, Blyleven would be expected to win 100 more games than Morris. Which one looks like the Hall of Famer?
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Update: Another great summary of why Morris is extremely overrated and Blyleven is a Hall of Fame pitcher.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
January 7th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
If ERA+ already adjusts for league and park factors, couldn’t you also adjust it to compare decades directly? I only ask b/c your method seems would seem to over value recent pitchers over those from the ’70s because today’s league average and replacement-level pitchers are crappier than such players were in the 70s. Am I missing something, or is this a possible issue? Not so much for Morris vs Blyleven, but in the follow-up posts about this metric.
Thoughts?
ps - regardless, this is a cool way to look at the pitcher position, and especially at the twp pitchers. When I get my Veterans Committee vote, I’ll definitely be voting for Blyleven.
January 8th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Good question. I AM using ERA+ to directly compare players in different decades. It’s just that I’m more comfortable with the ERA scale than the ERA+ scale, which I assume is true for most people reading this. The whole converting to a league-average of 4.50 thing doesn’t change the results, just the scale.
It’s just as easy to post a 150 ERA+ nowadays than it was in the low-scoring 60s. Today it’s a 2.25 ERA in a 4.50 league, whereas it used to be a 1.75 ERA in a 3.50 league. No era advantage in that regard.
Steve Treder made a good point over at Baseball Think Factory, however. It’s actually a bit easier to post a higher ERA+ in today’s game because pitchers are are throwing fewer innings, avoiding later innings when they’d give up more runs. However, when looking at overall value, the lack of innings is more of a detriment than the ERA+ bonus is an advantage. If Pedro threw .5 more innings per start at a 5.00 ERA, that would actually tack on value, because it’s additional innings above replacement level.