skyking162

I never said you had to offer me a second chance
I never said I was a victim of circumstance
I still belong, don’t get me wrong
And you can speak your mind
But not on my time

Sure, Hall of Season season is over and historical performances aren’t a topic somebody born in 1980 should be an expert on, but with the awesomness of Baseball-Reference’s batting wins and Sean Smith’s historical fielding data, it’s pretty easy to get a good sense of a player’s career value. I have no idea what the cutoff for the Hall of Fame actually is or what it should be, but I feel confident enough to compare the contributions of two players to each other.

There’s no better place to start than with Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker, who formed a spectacular keystone combo for the Tigers for nineteen seasons. On defense, Trammel saved his teams over fifty runs compared to the average shortstop, peaking at +15 runs in 1984 and 1989. His bat was also impressive, highlighted by his 1987 line of .343/.402/.551 with 28 homeruns. That helped earn him second place in the MVP balloting. No other season was quite that good, with 1983, ‘84, ‘88, ‘90, and ‘93 more in the .315/.380/.460 range. The table below shows Trammell’s plate appearances, batting wins above average, fielding wins above average, position win bonuses, and total value above replacement for each season in the big leagues.

Year	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	Value Over Rep
1977	48	-0.5	-0.4	0.0	-0.8
1978	504	-0.7	0.5	0.4	1.8
1979	520	-1.0	-1.2	0.4	-0.2
1980	652	1.2	0.0	0.5	3.7
1981	463	-0.3	1.8	0.3	3.2
1982	556	0.0	1.2	0.5	3.4
1983	581	2.8	0.1	0.5	5.2
1984	626	2.7	1.8	0.4	6.8
1985	677	-0.9	0.7	0.5	2.4
1986	653	1.6	1.0	0.5	5.1
1987	668	4.5	-0.7	0.5	6.3
1988	523	2.4	1.4	0.4	5.9
1989	506	-0.8	1.8	0.4	3.0
1990	637	2.5	0.4	0.5	5.3
1991	421	-0.5	0.2	0.3	1.3
1992	120	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.6
1993	447	2.0	0.0	0.2	3.6
1994	311	-0.8	-0.1	0.2	0.3
1995	255	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.2
1996	207	-1.8	-0.8	0.1	-1.8

Trammell had very high peak seasons, tallying six each worth over five wins, which is easily an All-Star level. But he had no other seasons worth over four wins and a whopping eight worth under two (approximately league-average.) Of course, those are mostly at the beginning and end of his career and shouldn’t impact the glory of his peak seasons. Overall, Trammel added 55 wins above replacement level to the Tigers, with 29.3 of those coming in his best five seasons.

Lou Whitaker, over at second base, was a very similar player, saving 113 runs more than average for a second baseman in the field, and putting up some very good offensive numbers. His best season with the bat was 1983 with a .320/.380/.457 line, but he also had six other seasons where both his OBP and SLG were within .015 points of that. Because his peak wasn’t as high as Trammell’s, Whitaker only finished in the top 10 of MVP voting once and he only put up four sure All-Star seasons. Below are his seasonal numbers. Note that Whitaker, as a second baseman, receives no positional bonus or penalty.

Year	PAs	Bat	Field	Value Over Rep
1977	37	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2
1978	567	0.2	1.3	3.3
1979	520	0.8	0.9	3.3
1980	568	-1.7	0.8	0.9
1981	382	0.2	2.0	3.4
1982	619	0.8	1.9	4.6
1983	720	3.1	0.8	6.1
1984	629	1.0	0.6	3.5
1985	701	2.0	-0.2	3.9
1986	651	0.7	1.2	4.0
1987	684	0.7	0.5	3.3
1988	477	1.6	0.8	3.9
1989	611	2.5	1.5	5.8
1990	552	0.6	1.6	3.9
1991	572	3.0	0.0	4.8
1992	544	2.5	-1.1	3.1
1993	476	2.2	0.3	4.0
1994	372	1.0	0.5	2.7
1995	285	1.0	-0.1	1.8

In total, Whitaker amassed 66 wins above replacement, out-pacing Trammell by 11. The total of his best five seasons is 25.2, four behind Trammell. How about looking at their careers graphically. I sorted their seasonal wins above replacement from highest to lowest. It’s easy to see Trammell had the higher peak, with his best six seasons better than Whitaker’s corresponding six. But the remainder of Whitaker’s seasons come out on top, and it’s not even close at some points:

So who had the better career, Alan Trammell or Lou Whitaker? To me, it’s a dead heat. Whitaker had more career wins above replacement, but Trammell had the higher peak. Without a good way to balance the two advantages, I just don’t know, and I’m not leaning towards either one of them.

More importantly, I think it is highly unlikely that the cut-off point for making the Hall of Fame falls between these two guys. Either they both should be in, or neither one should be in. So far the writers have been consistent in keeping both players out, unless you consider Whitaker being dropped from the ballot after his first year of eligibility a greater degree of rejection.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, January 26th, 2008 at 10:05 am and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.