More fun with the toy statistic. Here are the top pitchers of the 2000s, as measured by runs prevented. ERA+ (which adjusts for park and league) is converted to an actual ERA in today’s environment (4.50 average ERA) and compared to replacement level over the number of innings each pitcher has thrown.
For example, Pedro’s ERA+ of 166 means his adjusted ERA is 66% better than average, or 2.71. That’s 3.04 runs per nine innings better than replacement level (I’m using 5.75). Over 1314 innings, that’s 444 runs prevented by Pedro. Pedro is good. All these guys are good. Commentary follows.
Player Runs ERA* IP Randy Johnson 468 3.13 1605.1 Pedro Martinez 444 2.71 1314.1 Tim Hudson 415 3.60 1739 Curt Schilling 413 3.38 1569.1 Roy Oswalt 409 3.15 1413.1 Greg Maddux 388 3.75 1745.2 Roger Clemens 382 3.38 1454.1 Mark Buehrle 373 3.69 1629 Johan Santana 372 3.19 1308.2 Barry Zito 367 3.72 1627 Tom Glavine 351 3.88 1690.1 Roy Halladay 347 3.52 1398.1 Javier Vazquez 341 3.98 1735.1 Derek Lowe 322 3.72 1428 Andy Pettitte 319 3.81 1483.1 Mike Mussina 318 3.95 1590.1 Brandon Webb 318 3.13 1089 Carlos Zambrano 303 3.46 1193.1 C.C. Sabathia 292 3.88 1406.1 Bartolo Colon 277 4.05 1472.1 Livan Hernandez 273 4.41 1837.2 Jason Schmidt 272 3.78 1242.2 John Smoltz 271 3.19 952.2 Freddy Garcia 270 4.13 1500.1 Jarrod Washburn 263 4.05 1398.1 Brad Radke 263 4.02 1366 Tim Wakefield 259 4.13 1436.1 Kenny Rogers 257 4.13 1427.2 Jeff Suppan 257 4.33 1626.1 Jamie Moyer 256 4.33 1622 Kelvim Escobar 253 3.88 1217.1 Brad Penny 252 4.09 1365.2
Johan Santana’s the obvious favorite for pitcher of the decade come 2009, but Roy Oswalt is another quality bet.
For the record, Roger Clemens ranks 7th in the 2000s, 2nd in the 90s, and 10th in the 80s.
Speaking of the 80s, Dave Stieb led the decade with 571 runs prevented, but second place was Jack Morris with a pedestrian 440 total. We’ll probably see a dozen pitchers beat that mark this decade. Run scoring is up, but the pitchers are as talented as ever.
Surprises: Hudson in third, Halladay only 11th, Brandon Webbs stellar adjusted ERA, and Jarrod Washburn. Really, Jarrod Washburn?
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
January 6th, 2008 at 10:51 am
you know, sky, ‘pitcher of the 2000s’ just doesn’t have a very nice ring to it.
plus, the decade is still in progress.
January 6th, 2008 at 11:30 am
You know, if I had a time machine, the first thing I’d do is go back to college and tell college-me to ask out this girl named Gina. And the second thing I’d do is give high school- & college-me a wad of unmarked bills to go buy tickets to all the Pedro starts I missed.