My method gives pitchers credit for preventing runs. A lower ERA and more innings both contribute. If you like math, the equation is (repERA - ERA) * IP
I use B-Ref’s ERA+ to adjust for both ballpark and run environment (a 3.00 ERA is much more impressive today than in the 60s, for example) and converted it into what a pitcher’s ERA would be in today’s environment of a 4.50 league-average ERA. Why? Because it’s the context I’m used to.
Player Runs ERA* IP Greg Maddux 791 2.78 2394.2 Roger Clemens 675 2.96 2177.2 Randy Johnson 581 3.21 2063.1 Tom Glavine 560 3.49 2228 Kevin Brown 549 3.52 2211.1 David Cone 536 3.36 2017 John Smoltz 505 3.63 2142.1 Kevin Appier 480 3.44 1867.2 Chuck Finley 476 3.75 2144 Mike Mussina 451 3.46 1772 Pedro Martinez 433 2.88 1359.1 Curt Schilling 398 3.60 1668.1 Andy Benes 364 4.17 2068.1 David Wells 350 4.09 1897 Alex Fernandez 349 3.91 1708 Dennis Martinez 347 3.69 1514.2 Scott Erickson 337 4.25 2013.2 Jimmy Key 333 3.72 1476.2 Jose Rijo 324 3.13 1111 Ken Hill 322 4.02 1673.1 Jack McDowell 321 4.05 1702.1 Charles Nagy 318 4.13 1766.1 Pat Hentgen 305 3.98 1555.2 Kenny Rogers 300 4.09 1627.2 Jeff Fassero 299 3.91 1465.1
Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens were just unbelievable. Their adjusted ERAs just obliterate what any of the top pitchers of the 80s achieved, and Maddux’s innings pitched total comes close to what Jim Palmer and Tom Seaver posted in the 70s, when starters need much fewer pitches per inning.
Jose Rijo and Pedro Martinez were each kings for half of the 90s.
Honestly, by comparing that list to the top pitchers of the 70s and 80s, I’m inclined to call the 90s a Golden Age of Pitching. And here’s the 2000’s.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
January 5th, 2008 at 5:59 am
what if you ignored clemens 97-98 seasons for alleged steroid use? where would that leave him?
January 6th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Completely remove them? In 97-98, Clemens had a 196 ERA+ in 498.2 IP. The 196 ERA+ converts to a 2.30 ERA for a total of 191 runs prevented. His new total is 494, which ranks 8th just behind John Smoltz.
However, if you assume the performance of the other eight years for 97-98, you’d add back in about 62 runs per season, for a total of 618 runs prevented. That would still leave him in second place.
If you think Clemens used steroids in ‘97 and ‘98 (and only ‘97 and ‘98) it might have helped him to the tune of 57 runs, or 28 runs per season, or about three wins per season.
Everything above includes about seven more assumptions than I’m comfortable making, however.