Wow, linkage twice in one week. Let’s get it on…
What are the best pitches in baseball? Joe P. Sheehan chimes in with a brilliant analysis. Using PITCH f/x data, Joe computed the change in expected runs every time a pitch was thrown. For balls put into in play, that’s easy. But for balls and strikes, Joe calculated the change in expected outcome for the plate appearance (hitters tend to do better with 2-1 counts than 1-2 counts). It’s an awesome read. Here’s a teaser: Kason Gabbard’s changeup to righties comes out on top.
VegasWatch tears apart CBS Sportsline for matching ethnicity in 21 out of 25 comparisons between rookies and veteran major leaguers.
Lookout Landing makes a brilliant point about bringing more people to the stathead point of view — we need more easily accessible primers and fewer black boxes.
Speaking of well-written primers, here’s one on replacement level.
How many projection systems include platoon split data? PECOTA does, and even adjusts for percentage of lefties and righties that each hitter is expected to face. Pretty cool.
On a football note, NFL Stats rates kickers on their ability to make field goals. Adam Vinatieri comes out third-worst, and Olindo Mare was dreadful. Remember, kick-off distance is almost half the value of kickers.
Play fantasy baseball? Here’s more proof that drafting closers on crappy teams isn’t a big deal.
Finally, here’s another small reason to pick the Cubs over the Brewers in the NL Central this year: they have an easier inter-league schedule. .054 points of winning percentage over 15 games is .8 wins — on the free agent market, that would cost about $3.5 million dollars.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.