Doesn’t quite have the same ring as “I’m a MetsGeek“, huh? Anyway, I have a guest post up at Mike Pagliarulo’s website, Dugout Central. It takes a look at who’s the better player, Carlos Lee or Mark Ellis. The answer, of course, is Mark Ellis.
There are two reasons I decided to post the article at Dugout Central. One, I get to discuss the importance of fielding in front of a different audience. And second, they’re holding a contest in which the winner receives a few months’ worth of professional writing consultation. If you like the article or are simply a skyking162 fanboy, feel free to click the “thumbs up” button near the title of the article. Enjoy!
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
February 14th, 2008 at 6:25 am
Good stuff, Sky. I can’t vote cause I’m not a member, but I did want to comment that you might have better explained the position adjustment.
Also, did you use UZR for your fielding numbers. That’s a huge difference. FWIW, Dewan’s system would give you only about a 15 play difference between the two, perhaps 10 to 12 runs overall. Much less than 25.
February 14th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Hey Sky. Good post, even if the “math drudgery” went way too fast for me to follow. A few thoughts: (1) I agree completely that defensive position and prowess MUST be included in any reasonable comparison. (2) I like the fact that your argument isn’t “Carlos Lee shouldn’t get paid,” but rather “Carlos Lee shouldn’t get paid THAT MUCH.” (3) I think commenter “AJ” might be the Astros GM. (4) Isn’t it dangerous to align yourself with a site that FJM has ruthlessly ripped into on several occasions?
February 14th, 2008 at 10:28 am
studes — Any suggestions on what makes the positional adjustment more convincing? As for fielding numbers, I used the average of STATS and BIS zone ratings for 2007 and STATS zone rating for the prior years.
Dougie, think of it as a spy mission into enemy territory.
February 14th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
For an audience like this, I’d probably simply relate it to the replacement level of a certain position, as you did for park and league factors.
So you converted zone data into runs? Wow. I wonder what UZR said about them?
February 14th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
studes, do you mean use offensive levels to compare positions? I prefer not to go that route even though this audience wouldn’t know the difference.
You can get STATS zone rating in runs back to 1987 from SG at RYLW — I link to the spreadsheet from this page (also contain a link to Rally’s 2007 averaging of BIS and STATS ZR data in runs): http://skyking162.com/2008/01/fielding-stats-for-everybody/
February 14th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Oh, and regarding UZR — from 2003 through part of 2007, Ellis is at +20 runs per 150 games and Lee is at -7. That’s a 32-run difference defensively when accounting for position. No way Lee is 32 runs better offensively.
February 14th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
If you like B-Ref’s batting wins, Ellis is at -1.4, +1.6, -.9, and +.8 during his four full seasons — almost exactly average. Lee is at +2.2, +.7, +2.2, and +2.3. Even ignoring the +.7 year, Ellis is 10 runs better per season overall. Maybe a couple less because Lee gets more credit for value over replacement for his additional plate appearances.
February 14th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Dougout Central is full of amazingly stupid people. I see comments that ask what OPS is. They like to compare salaries of Webb/Peavy/Wang/etc to FA middle of rotation starters and say the FA’s should get 2M. They don’t understand basic fundamentals of Salaries, stats, clubs, etc. It’s like going into the mind of a 70 year old HOF voter. I know your trying to get a bigger audience but its just almost pointless. When I write posts on forums people just dismiss what I say, and the same thing will happen to you there.
February 14th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
I don’t think dugout central is that bad. They have some solid writers there, as well as guest writers like Sky who are of course good.
I think many folks did not give them a chance after FJM linked to them. Remember, it’s about bringing the scouts (or scout-like fans) and stats together, not necessarily staying on one of the extreme sides of the spectrum.
There could be some valuable discussion between people like Sky and people who wouldn’t know what a salary scale was if they stepped on it, I would think.