skyking162

After showing that Joe Morgan’s career dwarfs those of Alan Trammel, Lou Whitaker, and Ozzie Smith — all great players in their own right — I wanted to find a player who could put Joe Morgan to shame. I wanted to see what the career would like like for a player who could make a claim to being the greatest of all time.

One limitation is that the fielding data I’m using only goes back to 1956. Therefore I’m ignoring the likes of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Ted Williams. (There’s also the issue of league-quality the farther back you go.) After running through the careers of Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds (pre-2000), Rickey Henderson, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and a bunch of other guys, Willie Mays came out on top. Take a look at his career graphically, then I’ll point out some of the absurd numbers.

(Each player’s seasonal Wins Above Replacement are sorted in decreasing order from best to worst.)

You just can’t compare those maroon X’s to the other shapes and colors. Joe Morgan had a much better career than Trammel and Whitaker, but looks silly next to Willie Mays. Mays had four seasons better than Morgan’s best, and eleven seasons better than Morgan’s second-best. Mays had fourteen seasons better than Trammel’s best effort and fifteen better than Whitaker’s best. Mays’ career total of 146 wins above replacement is almost two times what Morgan tallied and three times what Trammel contributed. Mays played the same number of seasons as Morgan, two more than Trammel, and three more than Whitaker.

Where does all the value come from? Everywhere:

Year	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1951	524	1.3		0.4	3.3
1952	144	0.0		0.1	0.6
1954	640	5.8		0.5	8.3
1955	670	5.8		0.5	8.4
1956	650	3.7	0.9	0.5	7.1
1957	668	5.9	-0.2	0.5	8.2
1958	685	5.5	1.2	0.5	9.3
1959	648	4.4	0.5	0.5	7.3
1960	669	4.8	0.8	0.5	8.2
1961	659	4.8	1.0	0.5	8.3
1962	706	5.5	2.2	0.5	10.5
1963	671	6.0	1.4	0.5	10.0
1964	665	5.7	1.5	0.5	9.7
1965	638	6.4	1.4	0.5	10.2
1966	629	3.8	1.9	0.5	8.1
1967	544	1.6	0.5	0.4	4.2
1968	573	3.9	0.1	0.4	6.3
1969	459	1.4	0.0	0.4	3.2
1970	566	2.8	-0.3	0.4	4.6
1971	537	4.1	0.9	0.4	7.1
1972	309	1.4	-0.1	0.2	2.5
1973	239	-0.5	0.5	0.2	0.9

Willie Mays was a monster with the bat, with two seasons at least than six wins better than average, six more better than five wins above average, and four more better than four wins above average. His career batting line was .302/.384/.557 in leagues that averaged .264/.330/.401. His peak seasons were more like .330/.410/.650. He also hit 660 career homeruns in case you’d forgotten.

Mays played his entire career in center field, making his hitting accomplishments that much more valuable to his teams. And his terrific range in center field is not only legendary, but supported by the numbers. He had six seasons at least ten runs better than average, and that’s without considering the equivalent of three full seasons before we have data. If Mays had been a first baseman with an average glove, his seasons would have been between two and two and a half wins less valuable, on average.

This analysis doesn’t even include Mays’ throwing arm or baserunning skills other than stolen bases. I have no reason to believe he wasn’t a monster in those categories as well. You just don’t find baseball players better than Willie Mays. He’s the standard you use when you want to make someone else’s career look trivial.

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This entry was posted on Monday, February 11th, 2008 at 3:14 pm and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.