skyking162

I’ll admit it, this is a mail-it-in preview. We had no Orioles’ bloggers interested in a round table and I had an eight-hour fantasy auction yesterday where I tried my best not to bid on any Orioles not named Luke Scott, Ramon Hernandez, or George Sherrill (Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis were keepers). And I think I overbid on Sherrill. Here are some quick-hit Oriole thoughts before I turn this into an Around The Web column:

• Luke Scott isn’t being talked about enough. Yes, he’s old (already 30), but he’s hit 28 homeruns in 663 major league at-bats and sports a .273/.366/.516 career line. That’s better than Nick Markakis‘ .296/.357/.469 line. I know, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
• The starting rotation is overrated. Daniel Cabrera might still have the potential to be an ace, but a 10% shot isn’t worth much. He is who he is. Jeremie Guthrie was lucky with his BABIP last year and should regress to a league-average ERA. Adam Loewen is all potential, and the rest of the options are not pretty: John Leicester, Matt Albers (isn’t that a Studio 60 character?), and Hayden Penn who seems to be moving backwards, not forwards.
• The bullpen looks solid with Jamie Walker, George Sherrill, and Greg Aquino, but playing high-scoring games is a great way to unleverage the impact of a good bullpen. Just Baltimore being Baltimore.
• I actually like this team a little better than most people, but there’s no way they’re better than the Blue Jays or Rays, who are both at least .500 teams. Given that the under/over is 65 wins, I think I’ll take the over.

Around The Web

Bashing on ignorant sports writers who try to bash sabermetrics isn’t as fun as it used to be, but with Dusty Baker, a local hack, and FireJoeMorgan teaming up, there’s bound to be some hilarity. Even if you think FJM has gotten old, you should read this post. Here’s another good take on the Cincinnati issue, in the form of an open letter to Dusty Baker on behalf of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Joe Posnanski wrote a great article about the stupidity of the anti-stathead argument. Point one is that those folks often counter numbers-oriented arguments with… more numbers. They just stick with their own. Point two is that traditional numbers might seem simpler, but they’re actually anything but straight-forward. As Joe writes, “Sometimes, the anti-stathead crowd doesn’t realize something that’s worth realizing: The reason so many people keep working on new statistics is because the stats we grew up with are STUPID. And plenty confusing too.” Traditionalists are just choosing to stay inside their comfort zone.

The Brian Bannister statgeek story is getting a wider audience, this time over at Yahoo.

Brian, from my favorite NFL analysis website, offers an explanation as to why maximizing your score in betting pools doesn’t necessarily maximize your chances of winning. Think about that when filling out your March Madness brackets in a week.

Speaking of well-written explanations of sports-related statistics, check out Sal’s write-up of regression and why it’s important. (Hat tip: everyone on the web.)

The Cardinals are giving fans a chance to find their next big draft success. Power to the people!

Joe P. Sheehan has yet another great post using Pitch f/x data. He breaks the strike zone up into smaller pieces and found the linear weights value of the average pitch to each location, including balls and strikes.

Wow, there certainly is a theme to today’s links. Some teams continue to take the traditional route and think Dusty Baker is their savior. But some organizations have embraced changing the way things are done based on all the data now available.

Some fans look at the Rays and Pirates and think it’s the same-old plan (finish last, draft top players, repeat). But some fans notice the Rays’ fielding is much improved and smart contracts have been handed out to talented young players and cheap veterans, or that the Pirates are doing things differently.

Some sports writers continue to whine for the good old days and wonder why print media is going extinct. But some writers embrace the blog format and are reaching a wider audience than ever.

I apologize for the preaching, but I’d love for this level of ignorance not to be around in another ten years. I have no problem with your favorite player being David Eckstein. Just please realize he’s not that good.

Ok, how about some (mostly) non-baseball links…

From longtime reader and non-baseball fan Ari comes this story of the mathematical study of Joba Chamberlain’s arch-enemy: the midge.

This project might sound a bit anal, but it’s probably more productive than anything I’ve done since graduating from college.

Oh, and this article is amusing enough on its own, but reading the comments left by readers who couldn’t figure out that it’s satire is a whole afternoon’s worth of fun.

Your Turn

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This entry was posted on Monday, March 10th, 2008 at 3:07 pm and is filed under Around the Web, Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.