skyking162

Here we go, the first of 30 collaborative team previews in March. Make sure to check out Nick the Greek’s thoughts over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.

Kicking us off are the Kansas City Royals, the team with the fewest homeruns in 2007 at 102. That stat leads directly to my…

Bold Statement

The 2008 Royals will double their homerun total from last year.

Ok, maybe they won’t actually double it, but a 50% improvement just doesn’t sound as bold. Alex Gordon’s bound to live up to his potential soon, Mark Teahen hit 18 dingers in only 400 ABs in 2006, and neither Billy Butler nor Jose Guillen could under-slug the 2007 triforce of Joey Gathright, Emil Brown, and Mike Sweeney if they tried. I even like John Buck to improve on his power numbers, although Nick disagrees.

Over/Under 73.5 Wins

Over, most definitely. I can’t predict a huge surge in power and expect a team to get worse, can I? As I point out in the round table below, the starting rotation is the only piece of this team that’s potentially overrated. If the pitching was any better, I’d be as high on the Royals as I am on the Rays.

Homerun Breakout

Of all the hitters mentioned earlier, I think Billy Butler is flying under the radar the most. In 330 ABs last year he hit eight homeruns, so simply playing a full season puts him at about 16. Then add in the fact that he had 25 other extra-base hits — some of those are bound to turn into homeruns as Butler matures and grows stronger. I’m expecting a season total in the mid-twenties.

Homerun Collapse

I don’t exactly expect Jose Guillen to collapse, but he’s surely not the offensive savior many (including the guy who signs his $12MM paycheck) make him out to be. He’ll be 32 years old, dealing with steroid accusations, and still stuck in a home ballpark that doesn’t help homerun totals. I think he could easily finish fifth on the team in homeruns behind Godon, Butler, Buck, and Teahen.

Best Chance For Hardware

I’m tempted to go with Tony Pena, Jr. winning the Gold Glove at shortstop, but we all know you have to have some offensive talent to be eligible for that award. (Go figure.) Is there a SoY Award (Sophomore of the Year)? No? Hmm, ok, Pena, Jr.’s my pick. Oh, and my heart wants me to mention Zach Greinke as a dark horse Cy Young candidate.

Royals Round Table

For a discussion of the 2008 Royals, Nick and I are joined by Chris Rasmussen of Bugs & Cranks, Clark Fosler of Royals Authority, and Will McDonald of Royals Review.

Sky: Alright, guys, looking back after the season, what will be the Royals’ big story in 2008?

Clark: Unless he gets bogged down in trying to prove he can play first base instead of just sitting back and raking as a DH, look for Billy Butler to have a huge offensive year. The guy has won two batting titles in three full minor league seasons and hit .297 as a half-season rookie last year. This kid could easily hit .320 with 40 doubles and 15+ homers in 2008.

I also expect Alex Gordon to take the next step in his sophomore season and be an offensive force. He projects for a lower average and more homers than Butler, plus will play great defense at third and likely swipe 20 bases. He’s not yet the ‘next George Brett’, but he may well be on his way to being the ‘next David Wright’.

Nick: First, let me get this off my chest: I don’t recognize the name “David Wright”, because that bastard is dead to me. Maybe you can compare Alex Gordon to a different third baseman, like Eric Chavez?

I really think people will be suprised by the relative strength of the starting pitching. No, Meche, Bannister, Grienke and Hochevar won’t match up to the staffs of the Mets or Red Sox, but they will give consistently strong performances and will be in the top 5 in ERA for the AL — I’m talking just the starters, not the bullpen.

Clark: I agree that the starting rotation will be stronger than many think, particularly if Hochevar is ready sooner rather than later. You want a story that people are going to write at the end of the year? How about what an absolute great deal the Gil Meche signing was. In the first year of a new contract and first year as a staff leader, all Meche did was finish in the top 15 in basically every major pitching category. He set career highs across the board and seemed to really embrace being ‘the man’. Sure, his win-loss record was not good, but with a little more offense behind him in 2008, Meche might end the season as a twenty game winner.

Sky: Really, guys? As much as I love the Royals’ position players, the rotation scares me. Brian Bannister’s strikeout rate is awful and I doubt even his impressive baseball IQ can reproduce a .266 BABIP. Gil Meche still needs to win me over. Will his walk rate remain below 4 BB/9 and has he really morphed into a groundball pitcher? I’m as big a fan of Zach Greinke as there is, but even he’s no guarantee. And Luke Hochevar absolutely needs to make the rotation, if only to prevent another one of these guys from starting games: Kyle Davies, Brett Tomko, Jorge de la Rosa, and Brandon Duckworth.

Will: I also have to disagree a bit regarding the rotation. Even with Meche and Bannister having such solid seasons in 2007, the rotation as a whole still finished last in the AL in K/9 and 11th in ERA.

Chris: The Royals are, as usual, a work in progress. 2008 is not about 2008, but about the next potential winning team — which may or may not be in 2010. They have huge gaps. The potential of giving Tony Pena Jr. another 500 ABs could offset a net positive from Gordon, Butler, and/or Teahen. John Buck is a backup catcher posing as a #1. DeJesus isn’t good enough at the plate or in the field to be a defensive center fielder or an offensive corner outfielder.

Clark: I actually just spent a column defending David DeJesus. A lot of people, at times including me, have criticized DeJesus’ defense in center, yet he ranked third among AL center fielders in Revised Zone Rating last year, making as many out-of-zone plays as Torii Hunter and Grady Sizemore. Assuming his first three seasons are more representative of his offensive abilities than 2007, we’ve got a solid center fielder with a .800+ OPS.

Nick: Hey Clark, can you tell me… is David DeJesus any relation to former cub ‘great’ Ivan Dejesus?

Clark: No, David is not related to Ivan, at least not in any reasonably close fashion. Around our house, he is known as Dave The Christ, except for my oldest daughter who simply refers to him as ‘hot’.

Harry Caray: DeJesus spelled backwards is “Sus-E-JED”.

Sky: I’ll stick up for Tony Pena, Jr. a bit. The average of STATS’ and BIS’ zone ratings puts him at +13 runs last year. Baseball-Reference’s Batting Runs has him at -27 on offense. So with his 5 run shortstop bonus he’s about halfway between replacement level and league-average. I’d call that ‘bad’, not ‘utterly disastrous’.

By the way, could someone please outline the plan for kicking Ross Gload out of the lineup? Seriously, who came up with that idea?

Will: For all the hosannas thrown at Dayton Moore, I remain troubled by his approach to building the lineup. We’ve not only traded for Ross Gload, but also voluntarily brought him back. Along with the acquisition of Pena Jr. and Miguel Olivo, I think it’s plain that there’s a blindspot or a wanton disregard for valuing OBP. But no worries, we’ll “do the little things” with a fervent ardor under Trey Hillman — cue 5,000 stories about how he’s brought a Japanese approach to the Royals — which will fuel our miracle run at scoring 750 runs.

Sky: I thought Hillman was SABR-friendly…?

Will: All I can recall in that regard is that he’s said that he values OBP at the top of the order. There’s also been quite a lot of chatter about being like the Angels and the deep, indescribable fear which is produced in the hearts of men when base stealers run wild.

Honestly, I’m not certain what the Gload signing was about, either, particularly given that it was a multi-year deal for a guy who is pretty much just an older version of three guys the Royals have in AAA already.

Chris: Sorry for the silence, guys, I just woke up from a nap. There’s another point I wanted to address — expectations. I mentioned planning towards 2010 earlier and I was actually being serious. It is easy to lose sight of planning for the future because of the Meche and Guillen signings, but this team isn’t even close to competing, particularly in the AL Central. The question to me is what Moore does long-term to address gaping organizational holes. We don’t have a terrific farm system due to some bad drafts at the end of the Baird regime. Personally, I’ll be taking a forward-looking view of this season (as I have for the last twenty).

Clark: That leads me to what Dayton Moore had done and is doing organizationally. He has restocked the pitching. While weak at the AAA level, the organization is now looking pretty strong on the mound from AA on down. What they do position-player-wise is still a work in process. Frankly, outside of last year’s number one pick, Mike Moustakas, you really cannot project anyone in the system as future major league star. That’s the primary reason you have Pena at short, Olivo and Gload on your bench and an overpaid Jose Guillen in right field: they were necessary evils brought on by hideous drafts which left the organization with no depth.

Getting back to a positive note, I do think Alex Gordon and Billy Butler will be above average corner infielders this year and well above average starting in 2009. That should help cover up some of the offensive holes. Frankly, what are the Red Sox? Some average to above-average players sandwiched around Big Papi and ManRam.

Will: Forget Manny and Ortiz. Lets have a regular player out-OPS Dustin Pedroia first. Even if Gordon and Butler become stars, the Royals still can’t win with a stars and out-machines approach.

Sky: Great point. The Royals might have the front-line hitting and pitching talent to stay out of the AL Central basement, but they don’t have the depth to scare the Tigers or Indians.

Thanks to Will, Chris, and Clark for sharing their expertise, and don’t forget to read Nick’s bold predictions over at Home Run Derby. He’s bound to be funnier than me.

Your turn:

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