Day 2 of the 30 in 30 project brings out the Minnesota Twins, who hit a measly 118 homeruns last year. I really enjoy following this organization, as they do a great job of churning out young talent and competing with a payroll that’s consistently in the bottom half of the league. But then they go and do something dumb like keep Jason Bartlett in the minors for an extra year and a half and I’m happy I’m not a real fan. Don’t forget to check out Nick The Greek’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.
Bold Statement
The Twins’ starting rotation, even without Johan Santana and Matt Garza, will post a lower ERA than the 4.33 of 2007.
Francisco Liriano is already 16 months removed from Tommy John surgery and a legitimate Cy Young candidate. I expect him to start relatively slowly and be on a conservative pitch count, but just picture his 2006 debut over the course of a full season. That’s enough to shut most people up about losing Santana.
Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker all have the talent to be #2 pitchers and have at least part of a major league season under their belts. Livan Hernandez is actually a positive at the end of the rotation. While his 2007 ERA was 4.83, it was under 4.00 for the three previous seasons.
But what might help the most is addition by subtraction. Gone are Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson, who combined for 94 innings at over a 6.00 ERA last year.
Fun Fact
Carlos Silva led Johan Santana in Win Probability Added last year, +1.84 wins to +1.80 wins.
Over/Under 73.5 Wins
Over, but just barely. Trading Johan Santana and letting Torri Hunter walk were the right moves, but will make 2008 a de facto rebuilding year. As I mentioned above, the rotation could be excellent, and will at least be a strength. The bullpen should also continue to shine. Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, and Matt Guerrier are all top-notch relievers, and Glen Perkins can handle many roles — multi-inning reliever, LOOGY, or spot starter. I just wonder how long Nathan will be around since it’s in the Twins best interest not to pay him free agent money and every contending team will be in search of bullpen help.
The position players are what keep this team below .500. While the offense has three big names in Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer, tell me which of these other names scare you — Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Adam Everett, Carlos Gomez, Mike Lamb, and Delmon Young? My answer is none.
On top of that, I count only two fielders who are above-average at their positions — Joe Mauer and Adam Everett. Now, Everett should probably count as three studs, but Morneau, Harris, and Lamb project to be -14 runs over a full season, cutting the value of Everett’s +31 projection in half. In the outfield, the most optimistic statement is that both corner outfielders have fantastic arms.
Homerun Breakout
I’m going to play the forgotten-prospect card and go with Jason Kubel. He’s got the DH job all to himself, managed 13 homers in 2/3 of a season in 2007, is entering his age 26 season, and is bound to turn more of his 31 doubles into round-trippers. He may be the lone offensive overachiever in 2008.
Homerun Collapse
My pick only had 13 homeruns in 2007, but I don’t see number increasing in 2008. Sure, Delmon Young gets a second chance with the Twins, but he showed he’s not ready for the big leagues last year. While that’s perfectly fine for a 21 year old, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ron Gardenhire sit him more often (Young played in every game in last year) or even ask GM Bill Smith to give him more seasoning in AAA Rochester considering his struggles and his attitude. Even a reasonable step forward offensively can’t counter-balance losing perhaps 100 PAs.
Best Chance For Hardware
I’m officially kicking off the Liriano for Cy Young campaign… NOW.
Adam Everett should be the best fielding shortstop in the AL, but I can’t predict Gold Gloves for two different shortstops in two days.
Twins Round Table
Today Nick and I are joined by John Bonnes from Twins Geek.
Sky: Right now the trade of Johan Santana is the dominant Twins storyline. What will the big story at the end of the season be?
Nick: To me that’s easy, it will be the same storyline all year — the Twins will really, really, really miss Carlos Silva… I mean Johan Santana. Pitchers like him come along so rarely that the Twins should have done anything to keep him.
John: What about how bright the future looks for 2009? Maybe it’s the first non-freezing day in a week talking, or maybe listening to spring training games again has altered my chemical balance, but how can you not be excited about some of the potential on this team?
I’m not terribly optimistic about the center field situation before the All-Star break, but I’m damn excited to see what it looks like in September. Or whether Delmon Young can give us a glimpse of a future Vlad. Or if Jason Kubel’s second-half plate discipline can vault him back into the middle of the order. Or even if Alexi Casilla can rediscover the good graces that made him the talk of spring training last year.
And that’s not the half of the team that has the most potential. Was Scott Baker for real those last two months? Can Boof Bonser, who led the International League in strikeouts a couple years back, become a #2 guy? Can Kevin Slowey? And, of course, will Francisco Liriano be able to dominant AND stay healthy?
Nick: I really believe that Liriano is going to struggle this year. He may never regain the dominance he once had (see Kerry Wood).
Sky: Jeez, John, I think you just converted me into a Twins fan. Changing gears, is Ron Gardenhire smart enough to play Adam Everett every day?
John: Does Kyle Lohse give up big innings? If anything, Twins fans should worry that the team will sign Everett to a three-year deal shortly after Dick Bremer suffers his fourth pulmonary embolism over one of his defensive plays. Giving Gardenhire a player like Everett is like giving a desperate new father of a colic-stricken kid a Teletubbies video. There is just no way it doesn’t end up being overused.
Nick: Smart enough to play Adam Everett everyday? Who else are the going to play there, Nick Punto? Not many choices in the infield for this team.
John: For all the love thrown Punto’s way, he won’t get a starting job unless someone is hurt. He’ll still likely end up with 300+ at-bats, mind you, but that’s because there just doesn’t seem to be another competent infielder that can make the roster, especially if they carry 12 pitchers.
Sky: You know it’s a rebuilding year when Nick Punto can sniff the field. Given that assumption, where are position players on the next playoff team going to come from? I see Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer locked up through 2011, and potentially bright futures for Gomez, Young, and Kubel. (Actually, that’s a better start than I thought.) But is the farm system prepared to fill the gaping holes at second, short, and third? And can management keep the lights-out no-name bullpen freshly stocked?
John: Sky, I just don’t see the holes. You don’t need an all-star at every position. If Lamb can continue to mash righties and Harris can continue to be passable, they really only need Casilla to take over at shortstop (and I think Twins Territory is collectively selling him short.)
Meanwhile, the Twins could had some incredible speed at the top of the lineup with Gomez or Casilla. They could have an ideal guy hitting behind them in Mauer. Delmon Young can fill the hole between Mauer and Morneau. And you still have Kubel and Cuddyer backing them up. That’s a plenty solid first six spots in the lineup. Again, I’m very excited to see how this team looks come August.
Sky: I give Alexi Casilla a better chance of playing for a contending Twins team than Brendan Harris, and I’m really not that sold on Casilla. Harris’ bat was a touch above average last year, but he played both shortstop and second base poorly. I think this team will miss Jason Bartlett more than they currently realize.
Your Turn
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Boof Bonser?