Welcome to day three of thirty and say hello to the Washington Nationals. Manny Acta’s team actually tied with the Angels with 123 homeruns in 2007, but we thought it would be fun to run the two Los Angeles previews back to back. I know, we’re crazy. Don’t forget to check out Nick the Greek’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.
Bold Statement
The Nationals will have three Gold Glove winners, but once again field a team that’s league-average overall.
Who are my winners?
- Nick Johnson, who will take over for a floundering and/or injured Dmitri Young.
- Ryan Zimmerman, who has the influence of 2006 and 2007 working for him.
- And Austin Kearns, who has a fantastic arm and a center fielder’s range in right field.
Shortstop will be much improved by bumping Felipe Lopez off the field, even if Christian Guzman struggles to play league-average defense.
But left field, center field, and catcher figure to be minuses, some bigger than others. Wily Mo Pena can mash at the plate (more on him below), but catching the ball is not his strong suit. With limited playing time over the past four years, UZR puts him at about -40 runs over the course of a season. Even half that number is awful, especially considering he’s replacing Ryan Church, who was a plus defender.
In center, Lastings Milledge is more of mediocre corner outfielder — I’d rather see Kearns try his hand out there instead.
And while Paul LoDuca might be a man among boys in the leadership department (does HGH improve intangibles?) and is slightly above-average behind the plate, he’s about a six run step down from Brian Schneider. Johnny Estrada? There’s a reason he’s labeled an offensive catcher (currently without the offense).
Lastly, even though Nick Johnson’s fielding reputation is very good, UZR has him as only two runs above average per 150 games, and he’s slightly below average at reigning in balls thrown his way.
Over/Under 71.5 Wins
The Nationals won 73 games in 2007, but their run differential indicates they had 70-win talent. Brilliant line, Vegas. I’m going to take the under, partly because the number of holes on the field (shortstop, second base, catcher) outweighs the number of stars (zero).
But then there’s also the pitching staff. In 2007, ten pitchers started games for Washington, seven of them at least ten games each. John Patterson’s supposedly the ace, but he’s had only one season with more than 100 IP. Here are the K/BB ratios and xFIPs from 2007 for the projected rotation:
Name xFIP K/BB Shawn Hill 4.03 2.6 Jason Bergmann 5.01 2.1 Tim Redding 5.28 1.3 Matt Chico 5.75 1.3 Joel Hanrahan 5.79 1.1 John Lannan 5.97 0.5 John Patterson 6.63 0.7
Shawn Hill is a good pitcher, but the rest of the rotation is filled with fifth starters and long relievers. At least many of them are young enough to significantly improve. I have nothing to say about the bullpen except that they are completely and utterly average.
2008 will be a season of figuring out which players will be around for the next playoff run and which players should find a new career. If you’re a fan of a 70-win team, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as there’s bound to be a number of bright spots to focus on.
Homerun Breakout
Wily Mo Pena. This guy finally has a full time job and an organization who really believes in him. In part time duty over his career, he’s hit homeruns at a rate of 32 per 600 ABs, including 26 in 2004. The new stadium is supposedly much more hitter-friendly than RFK, where Pena belted 8 homers in a quarter of a season last year. Sure, we’re talking small sample sizes, but if there’s a skill Pena has always had, it’s power.
Homerun Collapse
Dmitri Young. Sure, he hit a measly 13 homeruns last year, but only Austin Kearns and Ryan Zimmerman hit more and I don’t see either of them taking a step back. Young’s just not as good as his 2007 line of .320/.378/.491. Based on his plate discipline and batted ball distribution, he deserved to have an OPS of .790 instead of .870. CHONE projects .274/.337/.441 in 2008. I’m not so much expecting his power to completely disappear as anticipating Nick Johnson to get his job back. Johnson’s a much better fielder, is seven years younger, and gets on base almost 40% of the time. Young can still counsel Elijah Dukes from the bench.
Best Chance For Hardware
I already mentioned Zimmerman and Kearns winning Gold Gloves, but I think I’ll go with Nick Johnson as Comeback Player of the Year (in addition to a potentially undeserved Gold Glove). This category is tough for the teams at the bottom of the league.
Nationals Round Table
There’s no round table today. I’m going to interpret lack of participation by Nationals bloggers as lack of faith in the 2008 team. Or maybe they just have more of a life than I do. If you need more to read, you can take a tour of Washington’s new stadium or re-read the Royals and Twins round tables from over the weekend.
Your Turn
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
March 4th, 2008 at 12:30 am
Well you got through three posts… Any thoughts on a potential trade of Nick Johnson?
March 4th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Johnson’s signed for 2008 and 2009 at $5.5MM per season. If he’s healthy, that’s a huge bargain. If he’s not, the Nationals are stuck with him. In order to show that Johnson’s healthy, he’ll need to play a month or two. And once he does that, the Nationals should realize they actually want to keep him instead of Dmitri Young. I just don’t get what Bowden’s thinking. Am I missing something?
March 4th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Young was just signed to a new deal, and absolutely no one will take him and his money. Someone (yankees, mets if delgado cant play, giants) will be willing to pay for Nick Johnson if he’s available.
March 4th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
If I’m the Mets and I don’t have to give much up to take Nick Johnson off the Nationals’ hands, I do it right now, injury risk be damned. He’s a better option than Delgado even if Carlos didn’t have injury concerns of his own. Or Seattle? That’s another move the Mariners should have made with the extra money they took on with the Bedard trade instead of actually doing the Bedard trade.