skyking162

AL EAST

Yankees 94 - The offense is awesome, the rotation is at least league-average, and the bullpen combo of Joba Chamberlain (anyone else enjoy pronouncing his first name Joe-Bay?) and Mariano Rivera is top-notch. It’s possible that a few injuries knock this team down into the high 80s in terms of wins, but 100 wins are just as likely.
Red Sox 89 - Manny will be better, but Lowell and Beckett should be worse. Everyone’s older, which isn’t a good thing for most of the team. And The Nation’s new favorite son, Jacoby Ellsbury, won’t be much better than Coco right away. This is a good team, but one that should turn over significantly in the next year or two.
Rays 85 - Yes, I’m drinking the Kool-Aid. I think Tampa’s chances of making the playoffs are just as good as their chances of finishing below .500. The reasons have been beaten to death, but more people need to pay attention. You’ll notice the biggest difference from 2007 in the team’s ERA, but the newly improved defense will deserve as much credit as the pitchers.
Blue Jays 82 - I love the fielding, Aaron Hill, and the rotation’s potential. But David Eckstein, the catching situation, and aging vets Frank Thomas, Matt Stairs, and Scott Rolen will likely disappoint.
Orioles 68 - This is a bad team, and will get worse when Brian Roberts is traded. Why they didn’t insist Adam Everett be included in the Tejada deal is beyond me. Putting this generation’s Ozzie Smith behind a young pitching staff would really help their growth. On the plus side, Luke Scott’s primed for a few very good offensive seasons.

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland 90 - Is anyone predicting them to win fewer than 90 games or more than 92? CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona didn’t exactly have flukey 2007 seasons, but expecting exact repeats in 2008 isn’t realistic. Travis Hafner needs to get back to this pre-2007 form to make this team a lock for the playoffs.
Tigers 89 - I promise I’m not overreacting to the first six games, but the Detroit offense just isn’t as good as people think. They won’t score 900 runs, let alone 1000. Why not? Because Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, and Placido Polanco performed way over their heads last year. And Jacque Jones (although I like him better than most) and Ivan Rodriguez are weak links. A mediocre pitching staff (this is the year Bonderman puts it all together, however) combined with a spectacular offense is a division winner. A mediocre pitching staff combined with a very good offense is not.
Royals 78 - I alluded to the Royals as a third-place team in my 30 in 30 preview, so I’ll stick to my guns here. Pitching and fielding were (relative) strengths in 2007, but I actually like the offense to be their main strength in 2008. Mark Teahen and Alex Gordon figure to rebound, and Billy Butler is a beast.
White Sox 77 - Adding Nick Swisher was the only significant move of the off-season (Alexei Ramirez may make me look foolish in six months), but the players already on the team are much better than they showed in 2007. Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko lead the list of candidates likely to rebound according to PrOPS. Fielding is still a problem, and Javier Vazquez will return to his career levels.
Twins 70 - Yes, I love the young pitching and I think Francisco Liriano will be a Cy Young candidate. But the offense is poor, and some of the young pitchers will be busts. It’s an admitted rebuilding year, so no long term worries.

AL WEST

Angels 88 - This team will be the worst of any division winner in the AL or NL. Howie Kendrick is a great bet for a breakout season, and is also a very good fielder.
Mariners 83 - If they do make a run for the division, it will be because of an Anaheim collapse. The offense is stale, with Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, and Adrian Beltre leading the way — not exactly intimidating. The fielding is bad, although not horrible. And the starting rotation behind Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez is not good. But those two guys are why this team won’t post a win total in the mid 70s. Bedard is awesome and Felix has no ceiling. (I don’t have to mention anything about overrating the M’s based on 2007’s run differential, do I?)
A’s 78 - The A’s are my darkhorse candidate as a team winning their division out of nowhere. Rich Harden might stay healthy and they might have a handful of young guys bust onto the scene a year early. But I also like trying Duchscherer in the rotation and Billy Beane’s ability to find actually talent in the scrap heap of available veterans. For example, Emil Brown’s bat is a touch below average and he’s a good fielder. That being said, there aren’t a lot of bright spots expected for 2008.
Rangers 76 - Note to Tom Hicks: Seriously, you need to find some starters, we’re not kidding. However, trading Edinson Volquez for a guy who might end up being listed in the same category as Curtis Granderson and Grady Sizemore isn’t a bad thing. And I do like the bullpen, Ben Broussard, and Kason Gabbard.

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 8th, 2008 at 1:16 pm and is filed under Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.