Edwin Jackson has a 0.64 ERA. Jeff Suppan has a 2.03 ERA. And Tim Redding has a 0.82 ERA. Those aren’t the guys you want to bet the house on in 2008, however.
Why not? Only 19% of Jackson’s balls-in-play have fallen for hits so far and his K/BB ratio is 1.67. Suppan’s striking out only two batters per nine innings. And Redding’s striking out and walking the same numbers of batters — 4 per game.
Not that you should put much stock in two starts, but let’s at least credit the pitchers who have pitched well and not lucked into a nice ERA. Thanks to Fangraphs, here are the top fifteen pitchers in terms of FIP, which is an ERA-like number created from K’s, BB’s, and HR’s. League-average rates are assumed for things like BABIP and LOB%. Luck is the difference between ERA and FIP. Minimum 10 IP.
Name K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB BABIP ERA FIP luck Ben Sheets 8.8 1.2 0.0 7.5 .199 0.00 1.63 -1.63 Derek Lowe 7.5 0.8 0.0 10.0 .370 2.25 1.78 0.47 Jonathan Sanche 16.2 3.6 0.9 4.5 .469 6.30 2.10 4.20 Dana Eveland 8.8 2.7 0.0 3.3 .268 0.68 2.15 -1.47 Jered Weaver 7.4 1.4 0.0 5.5 .293 2.03 2.22 -0.19 Shaun Marcum 10.3 1.3 0.6 8.0 .254 2.57 2.27 0.30 Tim Hudson 4.9 0.0 0.0 7.0 .233 3.46 2.35 1.11 Nick Blackburn 8.3 2.3 0.0 3.7 .344 2.25 2.37 -0.12 Javier Vazquez 10.5 3.8 0.0 2.8 .377 5.25 2.37 2.88 Johnny Cueto 12.2 0.0 1.4 18.0 .169 2.03 2.45 -0.42 Brian Bannister 7.5 3.0 0.0 2.5 .227 1.50 2.53 -1.03 Brad Thompson 9.3 3.4 0.0 2.8 .366 2.53 2.54 -0.01 Ryan Dempster 6.9 2.8 0.0 2.5 .130 0.69 2.58 -1.89 Carlos Zambrano 7.9 0.7 0.7 12.0 .253 1.32 2.61 -1.29 Ian Snell 9.8 1.5 0.8 6.5 .324 3.75 2.62 1.13
A few surprises there. Jonathan Sanchez is striking out 16 batters per nine innings. His Achilles heal in the past has been allowing homeruns, so keep an eye on those going forward. Dana Eveland and Nick Blackburn have made nice major league debuts. Brian Bannister’s BABIP is still low, but he’s upped his K-rate to 7 per nine. And maybe the Cubs decision of switching Kerry Wood’s and Ryan Dempster’s roles has proved to be genius so far.
Here are the top fiften players with the best luck — their ERAs are higher than their skills so far indicate:
Name K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB BABIP ERA FIP luck Erik Bedard 8.2 6.6 2.5 1.3 .192 3.27 7.38 -4.11 Tim Redding 4.1 4.1 0.8 1.0 .212 0.82 4.84 -4.02 Zack Greinke 3.0 2.4 0.6 1.3 .228 0.60 4.20 -3.60 Jeff Suppan 2.0 2.7 1.4 0.8 .224 2.03 5.60 -3.57 Fausto Carmona 4.9 6.2 0.0 0.8 .212 0.69 4.20 -3.51 Kyle Lohse 3.8 3.0 0.0 1.3 .195 0.00 3.37 -3.37 Todd Wellemeyer 9.8 3.0 2.3 3.3 .224 2.25 5.28 -3.03 Oliver Perez 7.7 3.1 0.0 2.5 .259 0.00 3.03 -3.03 Felix Hernandez 5.4 3.0 0.0 1.8 .231 0.00 3.00 -3.00 Justin Germano 4.2 2.1 0.0 2.0 .186 0.00 2.97 -2.97 Joe Saunders 5.1 1.7 0.6 3.0 .162 0.56 3.45 -2.89 Rich Harden 12.3 5.7 0.8 2.1 .272 0.82 3.56 -2.74 Tom Glavine 4.8 4.0 0.0 1.2 .278 0.79 3.46 -2.67 Greg Maddux 5.5 1.4 2.1 4.0 .173 2.77 5.43 -2.66 Jeremy Bonderma 2.4 4.8 1.6 0.5 .275 3.97 6.55 -2.58
Surely Erik Bedard’s homerun rate will come down, but his walks are ghastly. Fausto Carmona, Rich Harden, and Jeremy Bonderman have also caught the free pass bug. Zach Greinke needs to start striking hitters out if his comeback story is to continue. Some of these pitchers, like Felix Hernandez, Oliver Perez, Justin Germano (who?), Joe Saunders, and Tom Glavine deserve low ERAs, just not that low.
Finally, how about the bottom 15 in terms of luck — pitchers who are throwing well, but giving up more runs that they deserve.
Name K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB BABIP ERA FIP luck Jason Bergmann 8.7 1.7 2.6 5.0 .404 10.45 5.62 4.83 Jonathan Sanche 16.2 3.6 0.9 4.5 .469 6.30 2.10 4.20 Nate Robertson 9.6 3.5 0.9 2.8 .436 7.84 3.78 4.06 David Bush 6.8 6.8 0.8 1.0 .333 8.44 5.45 2.99 Javier Vazquez 10.5 3.8 0.0 2.8 .377 5.25 2.37 2.88 A.J. Burnett 3.4 2.5 0.8 1.3 .349 6.75 4.51 2.24 Roy Oswalt 4.5 1.5 0.8 3.0 .418 6.00 3.78 2.22 Matt Chico 7.2 2.4 0.8 3.0 .362 5.56 3.55 2.01 John Bale 3.7 1.5 0.7 2.5 .363 5.84 3.93 1.91 Jair Jurrjens 5.8 2.2 0.0 2.7 .374 4.38 2.63 1.75 Gil Meche 7.7 4.6 1.5 1.7 .344 6.94 5.26 1.68 Andy Sonnanstin 5.3 1.5 1.5 3.5 .291 6.00 4.70 1.30 Boof Bonser 5.5 0.0 0.7 8.0 .344 4.15 2.97 1.18 Dustin Moseley 7.4 2.5 2.5 3.0 .353 7.36 6.20 1.16 Ian Snell 9.8 1.5 0.8 6.5 .324 3.75 2.62 1.13
Not all of these guys have pitched well, mind you — Bergmann, Bush, Meche, Moseley — but all should see their ERAs drop if they continue pitching like they have. I’m happy to see Javier Vazquez and AJ Burnett on that list, as they’re the anchors of my AL fantasy league. And Boof’s always been a favorite.
So, remember, don’t base any serious decisions on two starts. But if you do, at least look at the right numbers (K/BB, FIP, BABIP, etc) and not something even more variable like ERA.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.